lab 14 Env Trends - Environmental Trends Predictions...

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Environmental Trends & Predictions Biology 101 Laboratory Biology and Society Laboratory 14 population quality of life
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Homework Discussion
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Looking at Trends Determine if there is a general trend How much variability is there & its importance Evidence of possible modifying influences Are there any limits? General implications of the trend Might intervention be possible and helpful?
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Numerical Trends Dr. Babbie’s Maximillion Report HB3693 B32 1972 – Proposes maximum O`ahu population of 1 million people Provides trends to make hypotheses about the future
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O`ahu Annual Water Use 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 linear curve fit 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 exponential curve fit 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 (millions of gallons) Procedure: Fit a curve to data to predict the trend Prediction: 1958-1972 data
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Coalitions forming to help save watersheds Forest protection vital to resource Honolulu Advertiser – April 24, 2003 2002 use? Predicted use in 2023? Predicted sustainable yield?
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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1950-72 data exponential prediction 1950-72 data linear prediction 2002 actual 2023 prediction O`ahu Annual Water Use (million gallons) 2003 sustainable yield prediction Babbie Data
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0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 City & County of Honolulu Population 2000 Census 876,156
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