FORECASTING

FORECASTING - CHAPTER 1 1 The Basic of transportation...

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CHAPTER 1 1/ The Basic of transportation decision making • How transportation Plan is decided? How do officials decide where to build roads and install bus stops? etc • Transportation decision seeks alternatives to solve today’s problems and avoid future problems, while preserving our communities and neighborhoods. • The decision-making involves Federal agencies, state government, local agencies, MPOS, and the public, etc. • Transportation Planning is the process leading the decision of transportation policy and plan. 2/ What is the legal basis for transportation planning? Transportation planning is required in the United States as a condition to receive federal transportation funds for larger urban areas. Requirements for urban transportation planning were first enacted in legislation passed on 1962. 23 USC 134/135 Requires statewide and metropolitan transportation 23 CFR 450 Describes the general transportation planning process - The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1962 was the first piece of federal legislation to mandate urban transportation planning as a condition for receiving federal funds in urbanized areas. 1/ Why are models important? Transportation planning depends on travel demand forecasts to predict the impacts of various policies, programs and projects. Travel demand models evaluate and simulate the operation of transportation system. Model evaluation and simulation provide information for various alternatives and predict possible outcomes. 2/ 3C Planning Process The BPR moved quickly to implement the planning requirements of the 1962 Federal- Aid Highway Act. Instructional Memorandum 50-2-63, published in March 1963 (U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 1963c) and later superseded by Policy and Procedure Memorandum 50-9 (U.S. Dept. of Transportation, 1967a), interpreted the act's provisions related to a “continuing, comprehensive, and cooperative" (3C) planning process. The BPR defined the various steps in a 3C planning process. These steps had been pioneered by the urban transportation planning studies that were carried out during the 1950s.
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3/ 3C Planning Process It was an empirical approach which required a substantial amount of data and several years to complete. The process consisted of: 1. Establishing an organization to carry out the planning process; 2. Development of local goals and objectives; 3. Surveys and inventories of existing conditions and facilities; 4. Analyses of current conditions and calibration of forecasting techniques; 5. Forecasting of future activity and travel; 6. Evaluation of alternative transportation networks resulting in a recommended transportation plan; 7. Staging of the transportation plan; 8. and identification of resources to implement it. 4/ Ten basic elements of 3C planning process Economic factors affecting development Population Land use Transportation facilities including those for mass transportation Travel patterns Terminal and transfer facilities Traffic control features Zoning ordinances, subdivision regulations, building codes, etc.
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