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Unformatted text preview: Stat 373 (F08)  Assignment #4: Due: 4:00 p.m. on Thurs. Nov. 13 in MC 4018E 1) Consider the residuals from the model you fit to the Kenora temperature data (including the month variate) in Assignment #3. a) [3] Plot a correlogram of the residuals. What assumption of the fitted regression model appears to be violated? The assumption of independence of the residuals, since r 1 is significant. b) Since the seasonal effects and trends have been removed from the residuals, we can use a smoothing method on the residuals to forecast future residual values to improve our temperature forecast for August, 2006. i) [4] Create the EWMA function described on page 12 of Chapter 6 in the course notes and use the points command (type = b, pch= 19) to add the EWMA smooth ( = 0.1) to a time series plot of the residuals. 0 100 200 300 400 500 6005 5 Index resid(kentemp2.lm) 1 ii) [4] Use the EWMA smooth to forecast the residual of the predicted August 2006 mean temperature from your regression model in Assignment #3....
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This note was uploaded on 05/03/2011 for the course ECON 202 taught by Professor Na during the Spring '11 term at University of Toronto Toronto.
 Spring '11
 na

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