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Unformatted text preview: open box B, therefore • • If the key is in box C, then Monty can only open box B because surely he won’t open A or C, therefore Bayes 9/13/2010 2 Misconception • Many people would think that since we know that B is empty after Monty had opened box B, the chance that the key is in either boxes will become half and it would make no difference to switch or not. • However, this kind of reasoning actually misinterpreted the information we obtained from Monty’s action and lead to incorrect calculation. • What we really want?...
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 Spring '08
 SMSLee
 Probability, Bayesian network, Bayesian inference, Monty Hall, Monty, sample space .

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