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Final Examination (09-10 Fall)

Final Examination (09-10 Fall) - THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG...

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THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND ACTUARIAL SCIENCE STAT1301 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS I December 11, 2009 Time : 9:30am – 11:30am. Only approved calculators as announced by the Examinations Secretary can be used in this examination. It is candidates' responsibility to ensure that their calculator operates satisfactorily, and candidates must record the name and type of the calculator used on the front page of the examination script. Answer ALL FOUR Questions. Marks are shown in square brackets. 1. An economist believes that during periods of high economic growth, the U.S. dollar appreciates (i.e., becomes more valuable) with probability 0.7; in periods of moderate economic growth, the dollar appreciates with probability 0.4; and during periods of low economic growth, the dollar appreciates with probability 0.2. During any period of time, the probability of high economic growth is 0.3, the probability of moderate economic growth is 0.5, and the probability of low economic growth is 0.2.
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