3.27510.Fert - 3. Economic Theory of Fertility and Insights...

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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 3. Economic Theory of Fertility and Insights from Biology Econ/Demog 275 Ronald Lee Feb 3, 2010
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 Readings for next time *Cox, Donald (2007) “Biological Basics and the Economics of the Family” Journal of Economic Perspectives v.21 n.2 Spring pp.91-108. **Robert Moffit (2005) “The Analysis of Causal Relationships in Population Research”, Demography (Feb 2005), pp.91-108.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 Readings for reports, illustrating causal analysis issues for next time Reports: why there is a problem of causal inference, what is the research strategy for identification, and how do the results change when this strategy is employed? Report : Arline Geronimus and Sanders Korenman (1992) “The Socioeconomic Consequences of Teen Childbearing Reconsidered,” Quarterly Journal of Economics CVII: pp.1187-1214. Report : Joe Hotz, S. McElroy and S. Sanders (1996) “The Costs and Consequences of Teenage Childbearing for Mothers”, in Kids Having Kids: Economic Costs and Social Consequences of Teen Pregnancy (Urban Institute Press). Report : Gertler P and J Molyneaux (2000) “The Allocation and Impact of Planning Program Inputs in Indonesia,” in Cyrus Chu and Ronald Lee, eds., Population and Economic Change in East Asia, Population Development Review 2000, Vol. 26 (Sup) pp. 61-88. Hotz et al is under causality on bSpace (so is Moffit). Get Geronimus through JSTOR. See me if problems getting Gertler and Molyneaux
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 Lecture plan for today Polybius Measurement issues for fertility Economic theories of fertility (Becker 1992, plus additional material) Basic setup Value of time Quantity-Quality tradeoff Altruistic models with dynastic utility Notes on a simple model with transfers (may not discuss in lecture, but you should read) Insights from biology for economics of the family (Cox reading)
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 Misc: Marriage and Divorce Did anyone go to the Public Policy talk by Ram Abromowitz on the sex ratio and assortative mating in France that was circulated? New paper: “You can’t be happier than your wife. Happiness Gaps and Divorce”. When the husband is happier than the wife, divorce probabilities rise. New paper: Overweight husbands have higher earnings, other things equal. Paper suggests this is a marriage market tradeoff.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 Today start economics of fertility
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 Fertility Now we have people paired up and married off; next step is childbearing. Marriage and fertility are not independent. Desired fertility influences gains to marriage Number desired influences the timing of marriage These days marriage is not a prerequisite for fertility. Fertility out of wedlock is high and rising.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 Fertility has long been a concern. Polybius, 150 BC
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This note was uploaded on 05/04/2011 for the course ECON 275 taught by Professor Ronaldlee during the Fall '10 term at University of California, Berkeley.

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3.27510.Fert - 3. Economic Theory of Fertility and Insights...

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