12.27510.PopGrDev_1

12.27510.PopGrDev_1 - 12. Population, Growth and...

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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 1 12. Population, Growth and Development Econ/Demog 27510 Ronald Lee April 21, 2010
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 2 Readings for next time As announced in the email I sent you, there are three readings for next week: Schultz, Miller, and Bloom et al.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 3 Reports today Candace: Lorentzen, P., McMillan J. and R. Wacziarg (2008). Death and Development. Journal of Economic Growth , vol.13(2), pp.81- 124. Lemin: Weil, D. (2007). Accounting for The Effect of Health on Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.122(3), pp.1265-1306. Sooyoung: Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt, Fabrice Murtin (2010) "THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HEALTH AND GROWTH: WHEN LUCAS MEETS NELSON-PHELPS", NBER Working Paper 15813
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 4 Reports for next time How many of you have not done a second report? I need to think of a good way to have all of you do a report for next week. To be arranged.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 5 New Topic: Population and Economic Development Background to the issue Malthusian concerns, traditional views – “population explosion” due to constant or rising fertility and rapidly falling mortality after WWII. – Would rapid pop growth prevent economic dev? Coale and Hoover (1958) was classic simulation study of the results of different fertility trajectories for India’s growth prospects. – Production side: surplus labor, output constrained by capital (fixed K/Y ratio). – Higher fertility and more rapid pop gr diverted govt revenues to investment in social infrastructure, health and education and away from physical capital. – Savings was a function of per capita income. – Population growth mattered considerably. Ehrlich and Population Bomb. Popular concern.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 6 Copied from Kelley’s article in the Journal of Economic Literature. There have been many other graphs and regressions of this sort, starting with Kuznets in the 1950s.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 7 In the 1980s, a revisionist view gained prominence Data show no association between population growth rates and per capita income growth rates in global or Third World data. But should there be one? Neoclassical growth model . Pop gr affects income level, not rate of change, in steady state. Revisionist perspective: markets and institutions adjust to changing circumstances, reducing or eliminating adverse effects. Various syntheses of the literature done in the mid 1980s including 1986 National Academy of Sciences report (item 2) of readings for today; 1988 JEL article by Alan Kelley. Revisionist view cont: Population growth has a mix of positive and negative consequences, and we don’t know how to evaluate them. e.g. on positive side are there returns to scale? Does population growth induce technological progress?
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12.27510.PopGrDev_1 - 12. Population, Growth and...

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