13.27510.PopGrDev_2 - 13. Population, Growth and...

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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 1 13. Population, Growth and Development (2) Econ/Demog 27510 Ronald Lee April 28, 2010
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 2 STUDENT EVALUATIONS Have Monique do these at start of hour.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 3 Student Reports Today Lemin on David Weir (from last time) Pierre on Schultz (required reading) Claire on Miller (required reading) Michele on Bloom et al (required reading) Chris Meyer on Lee and Mason (new optional on bSpace)
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 4 Papers and Conference Conference next Thursday, 9-1. Haas F555- Large Faculty Building Conference Room. Getting there: From sidewalk on Piedmont/Galey Rd, enter the building through doors on left under the bridge Go up the stairs, then go right to cross that bridge You will now be in the general area of F555; find it! Papers due May 6-May 10. If yours will be later than May 10, discuss with me.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 5 Plan for class 1. Report by Lemin on Weil article. 2. Discuss why these three articles on health and economic growth reach a different conclusion than Acemoglu and Johnson. 3. Three articles on fertility and economic development: Bloom et al using abortion policy as instrument. Schultz using MATLAB experiment (Bangladesh). Miller using family planning program roll out in Colombia. 4. Structure: Have student presentations on each of these articles.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 6 Population and economic development Last week took a macro look at this question. Old literature did a lot of cross-national regressions. Synthesized by Kelley-Schmidt (2005) article. Newer literature tries hard to find exogenous variation, instrumental variables, quasi experiments. Problem: ec growth affects fertility, health and mortality at the same time that fertility, mortality, and health may affect economic growth. Last time a number of articles used health and mortality as a source of exogenous variation. – Timing and pace of mortality decline will depend on the initial prevalence of diseases in a country, since different diseases and causes of death respond to preventative and curative interventions developed at different times. – Mortality decline causes more rapid population growth. Improved health may also make people more productive, better educated, longer-run planners, etc.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 7 Conclusions were mixed Acemoglu and Johnson found that better health and lower mortality Caused faster population growth Did not cause faster GDP growth Therefore they caused lower growth in per capita GDP, the outcome of prime importance. Heard reports on two other later studies that revisited this issue with a slightly different model specification and instrument, and found the opposite result, that better health and lower mortality caused faster economic growth.
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UC Berkeley, Ron Lee, 2010 8 Work on preindustrial England The Black Death killed off maybe one third of the population of Europe in a decade or two.
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This note was uploaded on 05/04/2011 for the course ECON 275 taught by Professor Ronaldlee during the Fall '10 term at University of California, Berkeley.

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13.27510.PopGrDev_2 - 13. Population, Growth and...

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