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International%20Interactions - GINI_51106.fm Page 1...

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International Interactions , 31: 1–30, 2005 Copyright © Taylor & Francis Inc. ISSN 0305-0629 DOI: 10.1080/03050620590919452 REPRESSION, GRIEVANCES, MOBILIZATION, AND REBELLION: A NEW TEST OF GURR’S MODEL OF ETHNOPOLITICAL REBELLION Gregory D. Saxton Department of Public Administration, State University of New York, College at Brockport, New York, USA Throughout the 1990s Ted Robert Gurr developed and refined a model of ethnopolitical rebellion built around four key determinants—identity, incentives, capacity, and opportunities. Lindström and Moore (1995), Gurr and Moore (1997), and Moore and Gurr (1998) have argued that the explanation Gurr proposes actually implies an interactive model in which these four factors, along with rebellion and repression, work inter- dependently to determine levels of rebellious ethnic conflict. In this study I utilize a three-stage least squares estimator to test the ability of this interactive model to explain the magnitude of ethnopolitical rebellion in the seventeen regions of Spain from 1977–1996. The use of an original event data set with enhanced indicators allows for the first test of Gurr’s interactive model not based on the Minorities at Risk project, while the cross-temporal design facilitates the first full test of the model’s democracy- rebellion linkages. This test demonstrates even stronger overall support for the theoretical model than previous analyses, which had failed to find evidence for the direct influence of grievances on rebellion, of democratization and repression on mobilization, and of democracy on repression. An important deviation from Gurr’s model is the finding that three of the proposed indicators of deprivation—relative regional GDP, education, and regional autonomy—were found to have the opposite impact from that intended. Implications of these findings are explored in depth. The post-Cold War period has seen both an explosion of ethnic and nationalist conflict behavior and the sophistication of explanations of that behavior. At the forefront of these advances has been Ted Robert Gurr. After nearly four decades of work on civil, ethnic and nationalist conflict, Gurr has developed a model of ethnopolitical behavior (1993a, 1993b, 1996, 2000) that integrates the literatures on nationalism, social 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 GINI_51106.fm Page 1 Saturday, January 29, 2005 3:00 AM
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2 G. D. Saxton movements, and domestic conflict through four key explanans: identity, incentives, capacity, and opportunities. Because of the indirect or inter- dependent nature of several of the core variables, Lindström and Moore (1995), Gurr and Moore (1997), and Moore and Gurr (1998) have maintained that the model can be better served by an interactive three- stage least squares (3SLS) structural equation model than by traditional unidirectional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Maximum Likeli- hood Estimation (MLE) models. Using cross-national data from the Minorities at Risk and Polity II data sets, these authors have shown that testing the model with a series of 3SLS structural equations yields
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