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RES 341 WEEK 4 DQ'S

# RES 341 WEEK 4 DQ'S - one vote is needed for election as...

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A mayoral election race is tightly contested. In a random sample of 1,100 likely voters, 572 said that they were planning to vote for the current mayor. Based on this sample, what is your initial hunch? Why would confidence intervals for a proportion be used here? After calculating the confidence interval for the proportion, would you claim with 95% confidence that the mayor will win the election? Explain your decision. Note: The assumptions are that this is a two-candidate race, and that a majority vote (.50 plus
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Unformatted text preview: one vote) is needed for election as mayor. Answer: 572/1100 = 0.52. It appears that the election is tightly contested. p = 0.52, q = 1 - p = 0.48 Standard error, SE = √ (pq/n) = √ (0.52 * 0.48/1100) = 0.0151 H0: p = 0.5 and Ha: p > 0.5 z = (p - p')/SE z = (0.52 - 0.5)/0.0151 = 1.3245 P(z > 1.3245) = 0.093 Since 0.093 > 0.05, we cannot say with 95% confidence that the mayor will win a majority of votes....
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