Stat 0302B Business Statistics Spring 2010-2011 Chapter II Probability§ 2.1 IntroductionProbabilities are quantitative expressions of uncertain about a person’s knowledge of the occurrences of some events. We are all familiar with the term “chance”, or “probability”. “What is the probability that Arsenal will win the Premier League Championship 2011?” “If I spend more time studying in this semester, what is my probability of getting a higher GPA than the last semester? “Given a particular economic status, how likely is that the RMB will appreciate by more than 5 percent?” “What is the chance that a middle-aged person will spend more than $10000 in departmental stores per month?” “What is the probability of producing a defective product by a certain manufacturing line? Probability and StatisticsProbability : deductive reasoning •From a known population to the unknown sample Statistical Inference : inductive reasoning •Using an observed sample to make a statement about the unknown population Population Sample Population Sample P.29
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