Stat 0302B
Business Statistics
Spring 2010-2011
Chapter II
Probability
§ 2.1
Introduction
Probabilities are quantitative expressions of uncertain about a person’s knowledge
of the occurrences of some events.
We are all familiar with the term “chance”, or “probability”.
“What is the probability that Arsenal will win the Premier League Championship 2011?”
“If I spend more time studying in this semester, what is my probability of getting a higher GPA
than the last semester?
“Given a particular economic status, how likely is that the RMB will appreciate by more than 5
percent?”
“What is the chance that a middle-aged person will spend more than $10000 in departmental
stores per month?”
“What is the probability of producing a defective product by a certain manufacturing line?
Probability and Statistics
Probability
: deductive reasoning
•
From a known population
to the unknown sample
Statistical Inference
: inductive reasoning
•
Using an observed sample to
make a statement about the
unknown population
Population
Sample
Population
Sample
P.29

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