36225 – Handout for Lecture # 9
September 15, 2008
1. A new method (method B) for teaching a certain industrial skill was developed, and it was
found that there is 90% chance of successfully learning the skill when this method is used.
Even though there is only 80% chance of learning the skill when any exisiting method other
than method B is used, method B is used only 25% of the time since it is much more expensive.
(a) What is the probability that a worker will be successful in learning the skill?
(b) A worker was taught the skill and was successful in learning it correctly. What is the
probability that he was taught by methods B?
2. A bank is considering extending credit to a new customer and is interested in the probability
that the client will default on the loan. Based on the data that the bank has accumulated
over many years of business, there is a 5% chance that a customer who has overdrawn an
account will default on the loan, whereas there is only a 0.5% chance that a customer who
has never overdrawn an account will default on the loan. Unfortunately, the bank does not
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 Spring '11
 finegold
 Statistics, Probability, Lie, Statistical Science

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