Lecture1(08-25-2008) - Lecture #1 (8/25/08) STAT 36-225,...

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Lecture #1 (8/25/08) STAT 36-225, Fall 2008 I. Probability is not always intuitive. ... 1. Let’s Make a Deal As a motivating example behind the discussion of probability, we’ll investigate the Let’s Make a Deal Paradox. This paradox is related to a popular television show in the 1970’s. In the show, a contestant was given a choice of three doors of which one contained a prize. The other two doors contained gag gifts like a chicken or a donkey. After the contestant chose an initial door, the host of the show then revealed an empty door among the two unchosen doors, and asks the contestant if he or she would like to switch to the other unchosen door. The question is should the contestant switch. Do the odds of winning increase by switching to the remaining door? 2. The Birthday Problem There are 60 people in a party. What is the probability that at least two of them share the same birthday (date, not year)?
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II. The Role of probability in statistics What is statistics? Here is the “Big Picture”
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Lecture1(08-25-2008) - Lecture #1 (8/25/08) STAT 36-225,...

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