Lecture #1 (8/25/08)
STAT 36225, Fall 2008
I. Probability is not always intuitive.
...
1.
Let’s Make a Deal
As a motivating example behind the discussion of probability, we’ll investigate the
Let’s Make a Deal Paradox.
This paradox is related to a popular television show in
the 1970’s. In the show, a contestant was given a choice of three doors of which one
contained a prize. The other two doors contained gag gifts like a chicken or a donkey.
After the contestant chose an initial door, the host of the show then revealed an empty
door among the two unchosen doors, and asks the contestant if he or she would like to
switch to the other unchosen door. The question is should the contestant switch. Do
the odds of winning increase by switching to the remaining door?
2.
The Birthday Problem
There are 60 people in a party. What is the probability that at least two of them share
the same birthday (date, not year)?
This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.
View Full DocumentII. The Role of probability in statistics
What is statistics? Here is the
“Big Picture”
This is the end of the preview.
Sign up
to
access the rest of the document.
 Spring '11
 finegold
 Statistics, Probability, Probability theory, Supreme Court of the United States, Birthday problem, Sample result

Click to edit the document details