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Chapter_13 - Chapter 13 Energy Overview Energy consumption...

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Chapter 13 Energy Overview Energy consumption on large scale measured in "quads" (quadrillions of BTU's of energy). One quad of energy is 1 X 10 15 BTU of energy; 1 BTU energy released when red tip of wooden match ignites. Boil dry 0.4 cc water. World consumption ('09): 474 quads/yr. U.S.: 95 quads/yr (20% of world consumption; Problem 29). World population: 6 billion. U.S. population: 300 million (5% of world population). We use 4 times as much energy per person as the rest of the world does (2500 gal OE/yr/person = 10 tOE/yr/person). Houses weigh approx. 15 t/floor.
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ENERGY LAYERING What is world energy supply accessible with current technology and at current consumption rate? (Sources: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ , http://www.iea.org) Petroleum: 5600 quads (12 yr.) Gas: 6254 quads (13 yr.) 235 U: 2400 quads (5 yr.) <<<30 years of status quo energy>>> Easy coal: 23,260 quads (49 yr.) Shale oil: 18,300 quads (39 yr.) Tar sands: 20,000 quads (42 yr) 238 U (breeder): 600,000 quad (1,300 yr)
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Grand Total: 1460 yrs with available technology, at current consumption rate. Requires us to perfect breeder reactors & work with plutonium. D fusion (future): 1 billion yr supply. H fusion (way future): 7 trillion yr. Now let's do a little reality check. Energy usage worldwide has been growing steadily at a rate of 1.7% per year over the last 20 years (ever heard of "compound interest" involving money?). Assuming 2.0% growth per year for the foreseeable future (projected by IEO to continue thru 2030), world energy consumption rate will double every 36 years.
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Remember the story of the kid who made a deal with his father to give him an allowance which doubled every week starting at 1 cent per week? (Kid was making over $20 Trillion/week at one year mark.) This known as exponential growth. Everything in nature (ie. bacteria) does it as long as food is available (energy in case of mankind). Revised energy layer estimates: Oil/gas: 20 year supply. Shale/tar/oil/gas/coal: 72 year supply. Assume 2.5% growth: 64 year supply. Fossil fuels and 238 U: 164 year supply. Assume 2.5% growth: 140 year supply. (Requires dangerous breeder reactors!)
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Take home message: Unless we start producing major amounts of power from renewable resources (ie. solar) we have 60 -150 years to get fusion working. When @ 2% growth will we use up half of all D on earth? ~2900 (845 yr.) Kick in H fusion: ~1300 years. D-T Fusion progress: optimist=15 yrs., probable=30 yrs., pessimistic=45 yrs. Sources: energy overview at http:// www.llnl.gov.tid/lof/documents/pdf/208363.pdf fusion overview at http://www.wwwofe.er.doe.gov
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Current Day Energy Issues COAL ASH http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fly_ash GLOBAL WARMING http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archiv es/2007/05/start-here/ http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Contrarian View
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ELECTRICITY Electricity is a "secondary" energy source.
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