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CEE_110_08_Lecture_1

# CEE_110_08_Lecture_1 - CEE 110 Introduction to Probability...

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CEE 110 Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers Prof. Keith Stolzenbach

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Dealing with Variability and Uncertainty in the Real World • Describing variability and uncertainty ommunication of information Communication of information • Measuring variability and uncertainty esign of experiments and sampling programs – Design of experiments and sampling programs • Understanding variability and uncertainty robability models – Probability models – Confidence intervals and hypothesis testing elationships between variables – Relationships between variables
Communication!

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Working with Data: Avoiding Bad Graphics
riting about Statistics Writing about Statistics hich sentence is clearer? Which sentence is clearer? • “A t-test (t = 3.59) showed that the two groups ere significantly different (p<0 01) ” were significantly different (p<0.01).” • “Women scored higher than men on the aptitude test (t = 3.59, p < 0.01).” We will learn what “t = 3.59” and “p<0.01” mean and how to write clearly about results such as these.

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Measurements with Multiple ources of Variation Sources of Variation Manufacturing Process for tructural Components f Structural Components Batch 1 Batch 2 Batch 3 Batch 4 Batch 5 Sources of Variability: Process Sampling method 1 Sampling method 2 Sampling method 3 Sampling Test method 1 method 2 method 3 Testing Total Measured Variability How do we determine the relative importance of different sources of variability?
esign of Sampling Programs Design of Sampling Programs ou want to quantify the You want to quantify the variability of PBDE in San Francisco Bay. • Existing data shows hot spots • You have \$200,000 to spend on 20 samples locations. • Where do you locate them? http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/article.cgi/esthag/2005/39/i01/pdf/es048905q.pdf

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robability Problems Probability Problems here are three doors, one of which opens to a There are three doors, one of which opens to a grand prize and the other two lead to nothing.
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CEE_110_08_Lecture_1 - CEE 110 Introduction to Probability...

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