lecture3psy236 - 1) Bias a. H indsight bias i. Tendency to...

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1) Bias a. Hindsight bias i. Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it ii. Problem because it does not motivate us to do better in our decisions 1. Never realize that we would have gotten the answer wrong, so think decision would have been correct iii. If we recognize this bias and way intuition fails us, it motivates us to be more careful- or even use scientific methods from the start b. Overconfidence i. Tendency to think we know more than we do ii. Leads us to ignore mistakes iii. Variety of processes that make us think that we know the answers to questions that we really don’t iv. Prevents us from seeking better answers c. Confirmation Bias i. We typically look for confirming evidence and we ignore disconfirming evidence ii. Contributes to overconfidence in our knowledge and understanding iii. Scientific method can help this but sometimes reseachers suffer from confirm. Bias with the questions they ask in their research 2) Reliability a. Extent to which our measures are free from random measurement error b. Get a sense by examining the precision with which our measure assesses something c. Assessing Reliability i. Consistency of measure-getting the same measure from the test every time we measure it 1. Can assess by doing the same measurement more than once d. Testing Reliability
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i. Inter-rater Reliability 1. Only applies when using I Data 2. If each person is rating accurately then each one should come up with the same answer-if ratings really close from indivs then reliability high 3. Can compute a single number that determines how strongly they agree ii. Test retest Reliability 1. Useful other sorts of data that are not I Data 2. Administer the same measure two times and then see whether we get the same answer a. Same result means good reliability 3. Only good for certain personality constructs a. Mood questionnaire the day before and after a big test For instance, imagine we wanted to assess your mood and we gave you a mood questionnaire on the day before a major exam and then again the day after the major exam. You can imagine that your mood would change in a very real way over these two days, which would mean that our mood measure should provide different answers. This isn’t the result of random measurement error, it is the result of very real changes in the very thing we want to measure. So in this case, test-retest reliability would not be an appropriate way to test the reliability of our measure. Test-retest reliability is only appropriate for constructs that are not expected to change. If change is expected to occur, then some other measure of reliability (including those that we will discuss next) would be more appropriate. Okay, so let’s assume that we are measuring mood, and we expect mood to
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lecture3psy236 - 1) Bias a. H indsight bias i. Tendency to...

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