1
Applied Probability
Chapter 0: Review on basic tools
2
What is probability?
♦
Probability is a kind of mathematics.
♦
It deals with problems with uncertainty.
♦
We need probability because
– We are ignorance.
– The underlying physical rule is unclear.
– We have to do something that we don’t know.
– We need probability.
3
What is applied probability?
♦
However, applied probability is not purely a kind
of mathematics. It is much boarder.
♦
Process of Applied Probability
– Observations; Experimentations; Collection and
Organization of Information.
– Establishment of a probabilistic model.
– Create New Tools: Extension and development of
known probability methods.
– Solving the Problem.
– Check with the experiments and observations.
4
A game
♦
Flipping a coin may give you a head (H) or
a tail (T).
♦
Prob(H) = ½, Prob(T) = ½
♦
What is the probability of having the pattern
of HHH in three trails?
♦
P(HHH) = ½* ½ * ½ = 1/8
OK?!
This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.
View Full Document5
The game starts
♦
You first select a pattern of three trails, like
HHH, HHT, TTT etc. Then, I will select
another pattern.
♦
We flip the coin successively until one of
the selected patterns appears.
♦
If your pattern appears first, I give you 100.
♦
If my pattern appears first, you give me 80.
♦
Do you think that this game is favorable to
you?
6
This is the end of the preview.
Sign up
to
access the rest of the document.
 Spring '11
 KB
 Probability, Probability theory, Probability mass function

Click to edit the document details