ch0 - What is probability? Probability is a kind of...

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1 Applied Probability Chapter 0: Review on basic tools 2 What is probability? Probability is a kind of mathematics. It deals with problems with uncertainty. We need probability because – We are ignorance. – The underlying physical rule is unclear. – We have to do something that we don’t know. – We need probability. 3 What is applied probability? However, applied probability is not purely a kind of mathematics. It is much boarder. Process of Applied Probability – Observations; Experimentations; Collection and Organization of Information. – Establishment of a probabilistic model. – Create New Tools: Extension and development of known probability methods. – Solving the Problem. – Check with the experiments and observations. 4 A game Flipping a coin may give you a head (H) or a tail (T). Prob(H) = ½, Prob(T) = ½ What is the probability of having the pattern of HHH in three trails? P(HHH) = ½* ½ * ½ = 1/8 OK?!
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5 The game starts You first select a pattern of three trails, like HHH, HHT, TTT etc. Then, I will select another pattern. We flip the coin successively until one of the selected patterns appears. If your pattern appears first, I give you 100. If my pattern appears first, you give me 80. Do you think that this game is favorable to you? 6
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This note was uploaded on 05/21/2011 for the course STA 3007 taught by Professor Kb during the Spring '11 term at CUHK.

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ch0 - What is probability? Probability is a kind of...

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