Terrorism and War Notes

Terrorism and War Notes - fragile agreement Process...

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Selection Effects: Reflects special population Process Effects: influence outcome Process= action affects settlements Selection= action signals population of cases Regional org. mediation Positive Process Effects: -Shared identities: political cultural economic and social -No colonialism/ not outsider Negative Selection Effects: - Civil wars internationalized neighbors support insurgents and are members - Embattled government is a member Selection Effects decrease settlement duration Selection Directive Strategies expensive mediator want to minimize costs only employ if necessary, tough cases Directive Strategies signal intractable dispute
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Unformatted text preview: fragile agreement Process Effects: Resources rich, create win sets, opportunities promotes agreement duration KEYS: 1) Selection not cause tough cases identify cases more likely to fail 2) Failure to identifu selection leads to false inferences about process effects CAMP DAVID ACCORDS: 1) Conflict management frequently fails: 75% fail 2) Peace since 1979 Mediated ppowerful mediator directive strategy Selection: tougher disputes fragile agreements 1) 30 yrs long time 2) Stabilitiy is a function of mediation efforts 3) Mediation effot also reflects depth dispute 4) US critical in post Mubarak regime...
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