Forecast Methods in the Dairy Industry

Forecast Methods in the Dairy Industry - (1 Real...

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forecasting methods described in Chapter 7. Bring to the review session. Data taken from NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service)-USDA. Commodity: Buttermilk Dry Human Instructions: Use your class notes/text on Chapter 7 and calculate the following: Attempt to fit a trendline using Excel. Attempt to fit a trendline using Excel. We will review/attempt in class; however, you may practice doing this yourself beforehand. Year Cents/lb Index of Prices Received Real Price (Cents/lb) Moving Average (Cents/lb) 2007 Jan 105.1 113 0.93 2098.3 Feb 123.9 118 1.05 2142.4 Mar 148 123 1.2 2147.2 Apr 164.5 127 1.3 2115.4 May 181.2 132 1.37 2068.4 Jun 198.5 134 1.48 2008.4 Jul 211.2 137 1.54 1939.9 Aug 205.9 137 1.5 1859.9 Sept 201.6 138 1.46 1781.1 Oct 199.9 131 1.53 1693 Nov 188 134 1.4 1693 Dec 170.5 134 1.26 1492.4 2008 Jan 149.2 129 1.16 1396.5 Feb 128.7 131 0.98 1317.1 Mar 116.2 129 0.9 1253.9 **This is not to be turned in as an assignment. Rather, it is to have you practice the different
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Unformatted text preview: (1) Real price (cents/lb) (2) 12month Moving Average (begin the series in Jan 2007) (3) Graph the original price and the real price on one graph . What do you notice? (4) Graph the real price/lb and the moving average price/lb on one graph . What do you notice? (5) Review how to calculate the Monthly Price Index (see class slides or page 101 in the text). Apr 117.5 128 0.92 1204.7 May 121.2 134 0.9 1159 Jun 130 137 0.95 1123.3 Jul 131.2 138 0.95 1086.1 Aug 127.1 137 0.93 1050.1 Sept 113.5 133 0.85 1021 Oct 100.7 127 0.79 1005.6 Nov 86.6 123 0.7 1012.5 Dec 74.6 119 0.63 1045.4 2009 Jan 69.8 114 0.61 1096.3 Feb 65.5 109 0.6 Mar 67 108 0.62 Apr 71.8 112 0.64 May 85.5 113 0.76 Jun 92.8 111 0.84 Jul 95.2 112 0.85 Aug 98 109 0.9 Sept 98.1 108 0.91 Oct 107.6 110 0.98 Nov 119.5 115 1.04 Dec 125.5 119 1.05...
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