Chapter13b - Weather Forecasting - II Review Thefore...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–5. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Weather Forecasting - II
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Review The forecasting of weather by high-speed computers is known as numerical weather prediction . Mathematical models that describe how atmospheric temperature, pressure, winds and moisture will change with time are programmed into the computer. The computer then draws surface and upper-air charts, and produces a variety of forecasts called progs . After a number of days, flaws in the computer models – atmospheric chaos and small errors in the data – greatly limit the accuracy of weather forecasts. Available to the forecaster are a number of tools that can be used when making a forecast, including surface and upper-air maps, computer progs, meteograms, soundings, and satellite information. Ensemble forecasting is a technique based on running several forecast models (or different versions of a single model), each beginning with slightly different weather information to reflect the errors in the measurements (similar to BCS computer averages).
Background image of page 2
Ensemble forecasting A technique to improve medium- range forecasts Run different models Run the same model with slightly different initial conditions Superimpose all results on the same graph “Spaghetti plot” The most common outcome is probably the most likely one
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Forecasting Tools AWIPS – Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System Meteogram – collection of observations at a given station over some time Sounding : vertical profile of the temperature, due point T and wind.
Background image of page 4
Image of page 5
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Page1 / 19

Chapter13b - Weather Forecasting - II Review Thefore...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 5. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online