Chapter14a - Thunderstorms Chapter 13 review A pe rsiste...

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Thunderstorms
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Chapter 13 review A persistence forecast is a prediction that future weather will be the same as the present weather, whereas a climatological forecast is based on the climatology of a particular region. A steady-state forecast assumes the weather systems will continue to move in the same direction and at the same speed as they have been moving so far. Weather forecasts for up to a few hours are called very short-range forecasts; those that range from about 6 hours to a few days are called short-range forecasts ; medium- range forecasts extend from about 3-5 days into the future, whereas long-range forecasts extend beyond, to about 8.5 days. Seasonal outlooks provide an overview of how temperature and precipitation patterns may compare with normal conditions. For a forecast to show skill, it must be better than a persistence forecast or a climatological forecast. Predicting the movement of weather systems Steady-state method Lows (Highs): towards the greatest pressure drop (rise) In the direction of the winds aloft (5500 m)
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Examples
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Thunderstorms Storm with lightning and thunder. Also heavy precipitation, sometimes hail, gusty surface winds. Favorable conditions: Unstable atmosphere Strong convection (convective storm) Buoyant force – the force on a less-dense object immersed in a denser environment Trigger for the convection:
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Chapter14a - Thunderstorms Chapter 13 review A pe rsiste...

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