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Unformatted text preview: 1.35 “I: 1 _ GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH IS IT
' SUSTAINABLE? Question 1]: The mid—year 2006 world population was 652 billion and was growing at a rate of .14%. Project what the world population would be in 2025, 2050, and 2100 at this constant growth
rate N=N0xert For 2025: N = (6.52 x 109) x e(0114 x 19) <= 10.77:: 109 > N = (652 1 109} x e(0114 x 94) = 19.04 x 109 Question 1—2: Given a 1999 world population 'ofdﬁ b’illioﬁ, and a '2006 'bopﬁlation of 6.52 billion,
calculate the average annual growth rate over the 7year period r a (lit) Ian/No} = (1N) 1111.1652 x 109)!(6 x 109)] '=0.0119 or119% .er ear Question 1—3: At an annual growth rate of I .I4%, how long would it take a population ofS billion to
grow to 10 billion? t = (llr)ln(NlNo) = (1m.0114)ln[(10 x 10551.15 )4: 109)] " = 608 xears Question 1—4: Use the doubling time fonnula to estimate how long it would take a population of 5
billion to double given an annual growth rate of 1.5%. q.» t = 701% = 11.5
= 46.7 vears : r = (l!t)ln(N/N0) = (1/44) In [(9.30 x 109M652 x 109)] = 0.00s}, or 0.81% Question 16: Use the growth rate you calculated in Question 15 to project when the 2006 population
will double. t = 70k = 7040.8] =§§ 1 mm Question 11]: Starting with the 2006 world population and using a population growth rate of 1.14%,
in what year would the Earth reach this impossible density of l pei'mn/m2 of dry land? 1 = (llr) lam/No)
= (1:0.0114) ln[(1.3] x 1014)/(o.52 x 109) = 869.] years is 869 years or in the year 2875 Question 1.12: There are places where population densities approaching I person/m2 already exist. A
twostory building in Delhi, lndia was found to house 518 people, a density ofl person/1.5 n12.
 Calculate the floor area of this building in Delhi. How does this compare to the average floor area ofa typical U.S. single family home (2430 it2 for a new home built in 2005')? c The density of the building housing 518 people was given as 1 person per 1.5 m2. The floor
area is most easily determined using a proportionality: l person/1.5 m2 513 pmplelx Crossmultiplying yields: (X) x (1 person) = (1.5 m2) x (518 people) It is given that the average floor area ofa new singlefamily dwelling in the 11.8. in 2005 was 2430 1'12 To compare this to the ﬂoor area of the Delhi dwelling, we must convert one of the ﬁgures so
that both numbers are in the same unit of measure, either square feet or square meters. 777 m3 x (3.28] {DZ/m3 = 8364 n2 8364 a2 + 2430 ft; 3.44 Incredible though it may seem, the Delhi building is o y 3.4 times larger than a typical
American home, yet it housed more than 500 people! Question 118: Using the highest growth rate in Table l~l and beginning with the 1970 population of
584,000, calculate the population of Botswana in 2000 and project it for 2050. Use the formula N = No
x e”. How many more Botswanans would there have been in 2000 in the absence of AIDS? In 2050‘? N = No x e"t
For 2000: IN = 584,000 x e(0.043 : 30; = 2 122 000 or about 2.1 million
———L—’—.—_—___—_
The actual 2000 population was 1,607,000. ThuS, there would have been 515,000 more people. For 2050:
= 584,000 x 60.043 x 80) ' = 18,213,000 or about 18.2 million The population projection for 2050, with AIDS present, was 1,
16,301,000 more people had AIDS not been a factor! 2,000. There would have been Issue 2;
Carrying Capacity and Ecological Footprint Question 23: It has been stated that everyone in the 1.3.3. could ﬁt comfortably inside the state of
Texas. The mid—2006 U.S. population. was 299 million. The area of Texas is 261,9] 4 sq. mi.
(67,835,000 ha). Calculate how many acres= and hectares each person would occupy if all LLS.
residents (in 2006) lived in Texas (1 mi" = 640 acres: 1 acre = 0.4 ha). \H
299 x 10" peopleﬂﬁl,914 mi2 1,141.6 Eeoulei‘mi—z Ex ressed per acre:
1,141.6 people{mi x ] “1531640 ac 178 Bennie{ac
Expressed per hectare:
178 people!“ 3: l MiG4 ha 4.‘ 5 Eeoglefha Question 2—4: How many times larger would Texas need to be, assuming all Americans lived there
and each American required ID.3 ha? 299 3: ll)" people x 103 hafpe«Fsen = 3.] x 109 ha would be required The area of Texas is 6,780,000 ha Thus, (3.1 x 109)I(6.78 x 10") 4572 times larger Question 2— 5: The surface area ofthe Earth is .1 5 billion hectares. Calculate the area available for each
of Earth’s 6.52 billion inhabitants as of2006. Report your answer in hectares. and acres. What assumption did you use? /_______\
(51 x 109 ha)i(652 x 109 people) — 78 ha Ber person 7.8 hafperson x l aci04 ha =<E9.S ac Eer gerson :, _—\_____
19.5 aelperson x ] mizi640 ac 003 l'l'iig Ber ﬂerson The main assumption is that all of the surface area of the Earth is habitable Question 2—6: Now assume all 6.52 billion people lived like Americans. How much area would be
needed? Report your answer in hectares, and acres How many more planets with the surface area of Earth would be required? 6.52 x 109 «people in: 103 Its{person 67.2 it “fills 67.2 x 109 hex ] ac!0.4ha 1680 )1 102 c 168.0 x 109“ x 1 mi21640 «IIe (67.2 x 109 ha)!(lS x 109 ha) = 4.48 more Elannets. Note that this number is misleading because the
\currenr population of the planet is not living sustainably on the 15 billion ha I Question 27: How much area would be required for all 0.53 billion people iithey lived like the 150
I ' million residents of Pakistan, who each require 0.8 ha? The easiest way to do this into consider that 0.8 ha is what pereentage of 103: 0800.3 0.070 or 7.8% Recall that 67.2 rt 109 ha were required to support a planet living like Americans. Thus: (0.078) rt [67.2 it 109 ha)  :2 rt 10% would be require ,
which repres .
a ”is
[5.2 rt 10 ha)l(]5 rt 10 ha) LB?» or 35 “/n of the area of Earth Issue 3 COASTAL POPULATION GROWTH: BANGLADESH Question 3]: The population of Dhaka was 93 million in 2004. First, calculate the doubling time at
the 1998 growth rate of 6% per year. t = 70I6 = 11.7 years = 12 years Question 32: Bangladesh had a 2006 population of 147 million on a land area of 144,000 km2
(55,000 mi2)2. Calculate the nation's population density in persons per km2 and per in2 (147 x 10" people)l144,000 km2 =
1 .8 people/km To calculate the density per square meter, you must ﬁrst calculate how many square
meters there are in a square km Students frequently have difﬁculty with this calculation if they
don’t have a conversion factor handy. It is useful for them to know that all you need to do to
make your own conversion factor is to square the kmtom conversion factor: 1 krn = 1000 m; 1 km2 = (1000 m)2 = 1,000,000 m2 = 1 x 106 m2 Thus, 1020.8 personsW‘x l [8002((1 x 106 m2) = 0. 010 persons/m2 Question 34: Bangladesh’s 2004 emissions of C02, the principal greenhouse gas, totaled 33.9 million
metric tons, compared to the U.S.’ 5.8 billion metric tons, which was by far the world’s major source.
The per capita emissions were even more disparate: 0.22 metric tons per Bangladeshi compared to 19.8
metric tons for each resident of the US. What was the ratio between US. per capita emissions in 2004
and that of Bangladesh? (19.2 tonneﬁpeeson) I (0.22 tanneﬁpeeson) = (Ono : i "a ...
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 Spring '11
 DaveHooper

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