CE93Engineering Data Analysis
Joan Walker, Spring 2011
Assignment 4 Solutions
1.
(30 Points)
Earthquakes and tidal waves
Define everything:
Probability of earthquake = P(E) = 0.1
Probability of eastbound tidal wave given that earthquake happens = P(T
E
E) = 0.04
Probability of westbound tidal wave given that earthquake happens = P(T
W
E) = 0.05
Probability of westbound tidal wave given eastbound tidal wave occurs = P(T
W
T
E
) = 0.15
Probability of damage to Mauritius = P(D
M
)
Probability of damage to Australia = P(D
A
)
a)
(10 points, 5 for formulation, 5 for answer)
𝑃 ?
𝑀
=
𝑃 ?
𝑊
∩ ?
=
𝑃 ?
𝑊
? ∗ 𝑃 ?
= 0.05
∗
0.01 = 0.005
= 0.5%
(last year was 0.4%)
b)
(20 point, 15 for formulation, 5 for answer)
𝑃 ?
?
∪ ?
𝑀
=
𝑃 ?
?
+
𝑃 ?
𝑀
− 𝑃 ?
?
∩ ?
𝑀
=
𝑃 ?
?
∩ ?
+
𝑃 ?
𝑊
∩ ? − 𝑃 ?
𝑊
∩ ?
?
∩ ?
=
𝑃 ?
?
∩ ?
+
𝑃 ?
𝑊
∩ ? − 𝑃 ?
𝑊
∩ ?
?
=
𝑃 ?
?
∩ ?
+
𝑃 ?
𝑊
∩ ? − 𝑃 ?
𝑊

?
?
∗ 𝑃 ?
?
=
𝑃 ?
?
∩ ?
+
𝑃 ?
𝑊
∩ ? − 𝑃 ?
𝑊

?
?
∗ 𝑃 ?
?

? ∗ 𝑃 ?
= 0.004 + 0.005
−
0.15
∗
0.04
∗
0.1 = 0.0084
𝑜𝑟
0.84%
2.
(20 Points)
A: the event that a radio was produced at factory A
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 Spring '08
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 Rogue wave, Tidal Wave, CE93Engineering Data Analysis, Joan Walker

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