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0.5
1.0
Increasing Likelihood of Occurrence
A
B
2
4
5
6
3
1
P(F)
P(B)
0.44
0.09
0.12
A
B
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6
3
1
Probability
Probability is a numerical measure of the chance, or
likelihood, that something will happen.
Some basic definitions….
Experiment
—a process that generates welldefined
outcomes.
However, which of the outcomes will be
realized is not known prior to conducting the experiment.
Examples
:
•
Toss a coin.
I will either get heads or tails.
•
Toss a die:
I will either get 1,2,3,4,5, or 6.
•
Take an exam:
I will either get 0,1,2,…,100
•
Fly from New York to Charlotte:
It will take
somewhere between 80 and 95 minutes
1
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—The sample space for an experiment is the
set of all experimental outcomes.
Example:
For the die tossing experiment, the sample space
is {1,2,3,4,5,6}
An element of the sample space is called a sample point
.
For example, the “3” is a sample point for the die tossing
experiment.
Assigning Probabilities:
1.
The probability assigned to each experimental
outcome must be between 0 and 1 inclusive.
That is,
2.
The sum of the probabilities for all the experimental
outcomes equals 1.0
How do we assign probabilities?
There are three basic
approaches:
Classical, Relative Frequency, and Subjective.
Classical Method
:
This method is only appropriate when
each experimental outcome is equally likely.
Thus, the
classical method would work for coin tossing, or dice
tossing, or most games of chance.
If there are n
experimental outcomes, the probability of one of them
occurring is 1/n .
Examples:
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This note was uploaded on 06/06/2011 for the course MGSC 291 taught by Professor Rollins during the Fall '09 term at South Carolina.
 Fall '09
 Rollins

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