Gilovich2 - Too NotesonGilovich chapters3and4 Evidence...

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Too Much from Too Little 1/21/2011 Notes on Gilovich chapters 3 and 4
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Evidence Necessary Sufficient Example: Mental imagery curing cancer.
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Inadequate evidence Incomplete information Unrepresentative Information Create the “illusion of validity”.
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Relationships Causality: one phenomenon is causes another another. What are variables? Covariation necessary As one variable changes in value, so does another. Adoption and Conception RQ Hypothesis: Infertile couples who adopt a child are more likely to conceive than those who do not not.
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Evidence needed Adopt Do not adopt
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Evidence needed Conceive Do not conceive Adopt Do not adopt
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Evidence needed Conceive Do not conceive Adopt a b Do not adopt c d
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What would be confirmatory d evidence? Conceive Do not conceive Adopt a b Do not adopt c d
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Overreliance on confirmatory evidence. Conceive Do not conceive Adopt a b Do not adopt c d Confuses necessary with sufficient.
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Why?
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