Solution To Earl's Decision Problem

# Solution To Earl's Decision Problem - 146 =.695 √ c EU(No...

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ECO 354K Game Theory Solution to Earl’s Problem 1. a) 21 11 09 . 099 . 099 . ) | Pr( = + = + M =.524 b) 811 1 81 . 001 . 001 . ) | Pr( = + = M =.00123 c) 189 . 099 . 09 . ) Pr( = + = + 2. Benign (.9) Malignant (.1) + (.1) (.9) + (.99) (.01) [.999] E.1 E.2 + (.189) (.811) Ch. No Ch. Ch. No Ch. M M M M B B B B Live Live Live Live Die Die Die Die (.75) (.75) (.25) (.25) (.05) (.95) (.05) (.95) [.8] [1] [.8] [1] [0] [0] [0] [0] [.8] [1] [.8] [1] [.6] (11/21) [.05] [.695] [.502] [.8] (1/811) N _

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b) EU(chemo|+) = (.75)(.8) Pr (M|+) + (.8 )Pr (B|+) = (.6) 21 11 + (.8) 21 10 = 210
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Unformatted text preview: 146 =.695 √ c) EU(No chemo|+) = (.05)(1) Pr (M|+) + (1 )Pr (B|+) = (.05) 21 11 + (1) 21 10 = 2100 1055 =.502 d) EU(chemo| — ) = (.75)(.8) Pr (M| — ) + (.8 )Pr (B| — ) = (.6) 811 1 + (.8) 811 810 =.8 e) EU(No chemo| — ) = (.05)(1) Pr (M| — ) + (1 )Pr (B| — ) = (.05) 811 1 + (1) 811 810 =.999 √ f) The decisions are indicated with red arrows. g) s*= Chemo , No Chemo E.1 E.2 h) EU*= EU(chemo|+) Pr(+) + EU(No chemo| — )Pr( — ) = (.189)(.695) + (.811)(.999) = .9415...
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Solution To Earl's Decision Problem - 146 =.695 √ c EU(No...

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