reliability and risk

# reliability and risk - Probabilistic Design load P =(150 10...

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Cantilever supported crank Cantilever supported crank attached to steel tube attached to steel tube ( 29 d d σ , x d : diameter shaft = lbs 10) (150, P : load = Probabilistic Design Probabilistic Design ksi 3.2) (129.3, S : strength yield y = Manufacturing tolerance assumed to be: 3/32" inch 4 L 1/4" inch 6 L x 0.015 σ 2 1 d d ± = ± = = (mean, standard deviation)

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( 29 ( 29 1/2 2 2 2 1 3 o 3L 4L P/4kd S + = Probabilistic Design Probabilistic Design • With a buckling constraint, allowable t min = d/100 I [2 nd area moment] for tubular section = kd 4 = 0.003811d 4 J [polar moment] = 2I = 0.007622d 4 ( 29 ( 29 ( 29 3 d 6 1/2 2 L 2 L 3 d P S /x 10 0.1364 x 3 x 4 x 4k x x 2 1 o = + = Von Mises stress calculation used for such complex stress analysis: with a mean value of: maximum stress in bending, torsion
Probabilistic Design Probabilistic Design 1/2 2 L 2 2 o 2 L 2 1 o 2 d 2 o 2 P 2 o S 2 1 o σ L S σ L S σ d S σ P S σ + + + = ( 29 ( 29 22500 σ ; x / 10 0.9090 /4kd 3L 4L P S 2 P 3 d 3 3 1/2 2 2 2 1 o = = + = ( 29 ( 29 2 d 2 d 4 d 3 4 1/2 2 2 2 1 o x 0.000225 σ ; x / 10 0.4090 /4kd 3L 4L 3P d S = - = + - = ( 29 ( 29 0.0625 σ ; x / 10 17.04 3L 4L kd PL L S 2 L 3 d 3 1/2 - 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 o 1 = = + - = ( 29 ( 29 0.008789 σ ; x / 10 8.52 3L 4L 4kd 3PL L S 2 L 3 d 3 1/2 - 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 o 1 = = + - =

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Probabilistic Design Probabilistic Design
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reliability and risk - Probabilistic Design load P =(150 10...

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