Feb 17 - Contingency Planning Uncertainty about motives of...

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Foreign Policy Decision-Making The Role of Individuals
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Foreign Policy Decision-Making From international systems level → To state level→ To elite groups→ To individual decision-makers
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The Psychological Dimension Risk Taker/Risk Adverse Proactive/Reactive Unilateral/Collaborative Ego defensive/Confident Logical/Emotional Self-referent/External referent
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How would Al Gore have reacted to September 11th had he been elected President in 2000?
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How does President Obama’s world view differ from President Bush’s?
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How would you deal with Iran?
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Biases and Bounded Rationality Attribution theory: decision-makers’ attribute motives to other actor’s based on pre-existing beliefs Attribute “bad” intentions to actors we mistrust; see our own actions as motivated by good will
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Attribution and Worst
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Unformatted text preview: Contingency Planning Uncertainty about motives of others creates a range of interpretation Planning for the worst case can result in a pattern of escalation of conflict Is history a good teacher? Our mental frames are learned primarily through socialization or first-hand experience Formative experiences History is important, but we all have selective memories And more Psychology. Status quo bias: actors will take more risks to protect what they have than to achieve new gains. Why? Cognitive dissonance: we have pre-existing beliefs and try to make new information conform to them First Mid-term Exam Results 90-100 80-89 70-79 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29 > 19...
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Feb 17 - Contingency Planning Uncertainty about motives of...

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