Chapters 17-20

Chapters 17-20 - Chapters 17 20(Student Thinking About...

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Chapters 17 - 20 (Student) 1 Thinking About Chance • Chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular and predictable pattern in the long run. • This is the basis for the idea of probability. Randomness and Probability • A phenomenon is random if individual outcomes are uncertain but there is a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions. •T h e probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is a number between 0 and 1 that describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions. • An impossible outcomes has probability of 0. • A certain outcome has probability of 1. Types of Probability •A n e v e n t refers to a collection of outcomes. • Experimental Probability – proportion of occurrences of a particular event when an experiment is repeated several times. • Theoretical Probability – For equally likely outcomes, outcomes possible of # occur can event the ways of # ) ( = event P
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Chapters 17 - 20 (Student) 2 Example of a Random Phenomenon that Leads to Probabilities • Experiment – We flip two coins simultaneously and record the number of heads that occur. Possible Outcomes: 0H 1H 2H Repeat experiment 200 times. Summary of Results: 0H 1H 2H 53 104 43 Calculate the experimental probability for the occurrence of 1H. What is the theoretical probability? Myths About Chance • Short-run regularity ± Example: What looks random? • Toss a coin 6 times. Which outcome is more probable? HTHTTH TTTHHH • Surprise Meeting (Unusual Event) ± Example: On vacation in London, you run into someone from college. Is this usual?
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This note was uploaded on 06/13/2011 for the course STAT 110 taught by Professor Johnson during the Spring '07 term at South Carolina.

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Chapters 17-20 - Chapters 17 20(Student Thinking About...

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