Chapter 17

# Chapter 17 - Chapter 17 Thinking About Chance Motivation...

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Motivation Classic example: What are my chances of getting heads if I flip a coin. What assumptions are made If I flip the coin twice what proportion of the time will I get heads? Possible proportions: 0, ½, 1 If I flip the coin 10 times what proportion of the time will I get heads? Possible proportions: 0, 1/10, 2/10, . . If I flip the coin forever, what happens?
Outline The Idea of Probability Myths About Chance Personal Probabilities Probability & Risk

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The Idea of Probability
Definition A phenomenon is random if individual outcomes are uncertain but a regular distribution of outcomes is observed in a large number of repetitions. For a random phenomenon, we do not know what will happen for each repetition. We do know what will “tend” to happen.

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Definition The probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is a number that describes the expected proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions.
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## This note was uploaded on 06/15/2011 for the course STAT 110 taught by Professor Johnson during the Fall '07 term at South Carolina.

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Chapter 17 - Chapter 17 Thinking About Chance Motivation...

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