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Unformatted text preview: 18 Babb and Rogatko Figure 2 Marginal posterior probability density function of the MTD of 5-FU
given the data from all 12 patients treated in the 5-FU phase I trial. of the gain in scientiﬁc knowledge (Whitehead, 1997). Uncertainty about
N is reﬂected through the posterior distribution and the expected loss
associated with each permissible dose x is determined by averaging the
loss attributed to x over the parameter space G Â V according to the
posterior distribution C k. Thus, after k patients have been observed,
the posterior expected loss associated with dose x 2 S is
ELk ðxÞ ¼ Lðx; uÞ C kðuÞdu
H and the next patient would receive the dose
xkþ1 ¼ arg minfELk ðxÞg:
x2S Copyright n 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved. ...
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- Spring '11