HW03a_sol

# HW03a_sol - Homework 3 Solutions Problem 4-1 Exponential...

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Homework 3 Solutions Page 1 of 5 Problem 4-1 Exponential smoothing Problem 4-8 Part A Five-Period Moving Average Time Period 12 0 0 22 1 0 32 1 5 42 1 6 52 1 9 62 2 0 2 1 2 8 72 2 5 2 1 6 9 82 2 6 2 1 9 7 92 2 1 t Y ˆ t Y t e The five-period moving average forecast for period 9 is 221 Part B Exponential Smoothing Time Period 1 200 200 0 2 210 200 10 3 215 204 11 4 216 208 8 5 219 211 8 6 220 214 6 7 225 217 8 8 226 220 6 9 222 t Y ˆ t Y t e The exponential smoothing forecast (smoothing constant of 0.4) for period 4 is 208 Part C The forecast error for time period 3 is 11

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Homework 3 Solutions Page 2 of 5 Problem 4-9 Part A Three-Month Moving Average Month Actual Forecast Error January 9.29 February 9.99 March 10.16 April 10.25 9.81 0.44 0.437 0.191 4.3% 4.3% May 10.61 10.13 0.48 0.477 0.227 4.5% 4.5% June 11.07 10.34 0.73 0.730 0.533 6.6% 6.6% July 11.52 10.64 0.88 0.877 0.769 7.6% 7.6% August 11.09 11.07 0.02 0.023 0.001 0.2% 0.2% September 10.80 11.23 -0.43 0.427 0.182 4.0% -4.0% October 10.50 11.14 -0.64 0.637 0.405 6.1% -6.1% November 10.86 10.80 0.06 0.063 0.004 0.6% 0.6% December 9.97 10.72 -0.75 0.750 0.562 7.5% -7.5% January 10.44 Count 9 MAD 0.491 MSE 0.319 MAPE 4.6% MPE 0.7% t t Y Y ˆ   2 ˆ t t Y Y t t t Y Y Y ˆ   t t t Y Y Y ˆ Part B
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## This note was uploaded on 06/18/2011 for the course IEOR 4307 taught by Professor Dr.kosrowdehnad during the Summer '10 term at Columbia.

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HW03a_sol - Homework 3 Solutions Problem 4-1 Exponential...

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