12. Global Warming

12. Global Warming - Global Warming Intergovernmental Panel...

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Global Warming
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOjfxEejS2Y Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Report 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/
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Global Warming vs. Climate Change A tendency for the global mean surface temperature to increase Do you “believe in” global warming? Focus on climate change
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Global Warming Public Opinion (US) 2006 ~70% feel global warming is happening ~70% thought global warming was responsible for more extreme weather events 2010 Decreased to ~50% Climate-gate, Himalaya error (IPCC)
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Global Warming Hidden meaning (realclimate.org) 1) whether greenhouse gases are accumulating? 2) whether the greenhouse effect is established science? 3) whether global warming has been observed? 4) whether future climate change is expected to be big enough to worry about?
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Earth’s Natural Greenhouse Review Earth Ave. mean global temp = 15°C Blackbody temps = -18°C (moon ave. temp = -16°C) Earth’s natural greenhouse effect = 33°C warming Makes Earth Habitable
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Knowns Concentrations of GHG are increasing The source of this increase is human activity (burning fossil fuels) Physics behind the greenhouse effect Increased global temperatures More debatable Global temperatures are increasing That increase is caused by anthropogenic GHG Global Warming
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• H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 Sources? Earth’s Natural Greenhouse Gases
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Sources H 2 O Water vapor, evaporation – mostly from tropics CO 2 Volcanism, decay of organic matter, respiration CH 4 Seepage from natural sources: wetlands (anaerobic decay), methane hydrates Earth’s Natural Greenhouse Gases
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Greenhouse Effect (review) Incoming radiation Short wave radiation (visible light) Outgoing radiation Long wave radiation (infrared) Short wave VIS Long wave IR
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Greenhouse Effect (review) IR not enough energy to break bonds- imparts vibrational and rotational energy to molecules more collisions increase in total energy of motion in all air molecules increased temperature of the atmosphere (ave. energy of the motion of molecules) radiates that heat to space and to earth
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Increases energy of ALL molecules But energy is initially absorbed by the greenhouse gases Due to relationship between bond lengths within the gas molecule and IR wavelengths Atmosphere then re-emits energy to the earth and space Greenhouse Effect (review)
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Earth as a Black Body (S/4)(1- α ) Earth σ T T e = 255K = -18°C
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Atmosphere Earth’s Greenhouse see KKC box pg 43 (45) Earth σ T T s = 288K = 15°C
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Anthropogenic GH Gases CO 2 CH 4 CFC -11 CFC -12 N 2 O Atmospheric Conc. ppm ppb ppt ppt ppb Pre- industrial (1750-1800) 280 800 0 0 288 Present Day 353 379 1720 1774 280 251 484 538 310 319 Rate of change /yr 1.8 1.86 15 3 9.5 -2 17 .5 0.8 .7 Atm lifetime (yrs) 50- 200 12 45 100 114 (from IPCC 1990 and 2007) 2005 2005 1990 1990
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“Keeling” Curve KKC 1-2 2011 = 391ppmV
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Atmospheric CO 2 Deforestation IPCC 2001 Deforestation Data from: ice cores Keeling curve
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Atmospheric CO 2 Emissions Total Fossil Fuels Deforestation
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The Suess Effect δ
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This note was uploaded on 07/08/2011 for the course GLY 3074 taught by Professor Ellenmartin during the Spring '09 term at University of Florida.

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12. Global Warming - Global Warming Intergovernmental Panel...

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