assignment 2_event history analysis

assignment 2_event history analysis - Alicia Deal 05-11-07...

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Alicia Deal CJ 771 05-11-07 Assignment #2 1.) Using the recidivism data, calculate at least 2 parametric event history analysis models and test whether the intervention (financial aid after release from prison) has an impact on survival time when the other predictors (age, race, work experience, marital status, whether released on parole, number of prior convictions, and education) are included in the model. Which of the 2 or more parametric models best explains time to recidivism? According to the AIC and BIC statistics, the loglog and Weibull models have the best fit compared to the other models. The loglog model has an AIC value of 656.9659 and the BIC is 697.6501. The Weibull model is the best model of all models and has values of 656.6887 for the AIC and 697.373 for the BIC. The log likelihood for each model further suggests that they are better models compared to the log normal and exponential models. The log likelihood for the log logistic model is -318.48294 and the log likelihood for the Weibull model is -318.34437. Also both models have chi-square significance less than .001. If the cut off for significance is at .5 then the intervention variable (financial aid after release) has some minimal impact on survival time when the other predictor values are included into the model. For the Weibull model, if the individual did not receive financial aid after release then they are slightly more likely to be re-arrested (z=-1.89; p=.059). For the loglog model the z value for financial aid is 1.90 with a significance of .057. For both models the only significant predictors for recidivism are age and prior convictions. For the Weibull model, there is a decrease in the hazard ratio for age and an increase in the hazard ratio for prior convictions. In other words, those who are younger and have a greater number of convictions are more likely to be re-arrested after release from prison. 2.)
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assignment 2_event history analysis - Alicia Deal 05-11-07...

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