Lecture1

Lecture1 - needaclasson CWR6117 Lecture1 Famous...

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few examples of why you would A few examples of why you would need a class on Statistical Hydrology WR6117 CWR6117 Lecture 1
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mous Quotes Famous Quotes Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. ~Aaron Levenstein en there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with Then there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches. ~W.I.E. Gates e average human has one breast and one testicle ~Des The average human has one breast and one testicle. Des McHale Statistics may be defined as "a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty." ~W.A. Wallis
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few case studies… A few case studies… ainfall in South Florida Rainfall in South Florida Soil moisture in the Nylsvley savanna ainfall and soil moisture in the Kalahari Transect Rainfall and soil moisture in the Kalahari Transect Climate and water balance in Lake Okeechobee ti ti f t hd l i t Statistics of extreme hydrologic events Water management under uncertainty (Florida d Ct Ri ) and Costa Rica) Climate change in the Caribbean basin
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Station locations 26.0 N 25.5 N 81.5 W 81.0 80.5 80.0 25.0 N Figure 1 : Location of the 38 rainfall stations (black circles) listed on Table 1. The black line recreates the coastal line and the green line denotes the boundaries of the Everglades National Park.
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35 30 per day 20 25 able data p 10 15 er of avail a 5 Numb e 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (year) Figure 2 : Number of station data available per day in the whole time range. (y )
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12 10 nches) 6 8 rainfall (i n 4 Mean daily 0 2 M 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (year) Figure 3 : Mean daily rainfall depth rates.
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10 Average 8 s) Std. dev. Skewness Kurtosis 6 ain (inche s 2 4 Monthly r 0 -2 123456789 1 0 1 1 1 2 onth Figure 4 : Average and standard deviation from monthly rainfall rates in inches. The skewness and kurtosis presented also here are non‐dimensional (similar to Figure 3 by Ahn, 2003). month
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90 80 s) . 60 70 rain (inche s 50 Annual r 40 30 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 year Figure 5 : Annual rainfall rates (black circles joined by a grey dashed line when consecutive) compared to the annual average (black solid line).
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18 14 16 10 12 uenc y 6 8 freq u 2 4 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 0 Annual rain (inches) Figure 6 : Annual rainfall rate frequency distribution.
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90 average 57.6 inches from mean daily data inear (from mean daily data) y = -0.1220x + 297.2820 0 80 s) . Linear (from mean daily data) 60 70 rain (inche s 50 Annual 40 30 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 year Figure 32: Annual rainfall rates as presented on Figure 5, showing a linear fit. The fitted slope of ‐0.122 inches/year has 90% confidence bounds of (‐0.194, ‐0.050) inches/year. This average decreasing in the annual rainfall rate is equivalent to a diminishing of 6.1 inches every 50 years.
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Data Year Range Number of years Slope (inches/year) 90 % Confidence interval from fitting (inches/year) ENP area from mean 1916‐2006 84 ‐0.122 (‐0.194, ‐0.050) daily data of all stations 1940‐2006 67 ‐0.131 (‐0.238, ‐0.025) HOMES.ES 1916‐1988 65 ‐0.034 (‐0.156, +0.089) NP‐FMB 1949‐2002 52 +0.025 (‐0.136, +0.187) NP‐IFS 1916‐1997 66 ‐0.021 (‐0.138, +0.096) 88780 & TAMITR40 1942‐1989 30 ‐0.138 (‐0.415, +0.138) East coast area
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This note was uploaded on 07/09/2011 for the course CWR 6117 taught by Professor Miralles during the Spring '09 term at FIU.

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Lecture1 - needaclasson CWR6117 Lecture1 Famous...

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