Overcome-self-psychology-to-win-in-forex-trading-farsi

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Unformatted text preview: ‫ ﻏﻠﺒﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺧﻮﯾﺸﺘﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﯼ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻌﺎ ﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﯼ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ‬ ‫ ﺗﺮﺟﻤﻪ ﻣﻴﺜ ﻢ ﭘﻴﺮﯼ‬ ‫:‬ ‫ ﺯﻣﺴﺘﺎ ﻥ 78‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺫﮐﺮ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﺍ ﺳﺖ‬ ‫ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺷﺘﺒﺎﻩ 1 ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪ ﮐﻮﺭﮐﻮﺭﺍﻧﻪ:‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ . .‬ ‫ ﺗ ﻘﻠﻴ ـﺪ ﮐﻮﺭﮐﻮﺭﺍﻧ ـﻪ ﯾــﮏ ﺿ ـﻌﻒ ﻣﻬﻠ ـﮏ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﺸ ـﻨﺎﺧﺘﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻏﻠ ـﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠ ـﻪ ﮔ ـﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﺍﺳ . ﺩﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﯼ ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﺷﺪﻩ٬ ﺍﺧﺒﺎﺭ ﺗﮑـﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻨـﺪﻩ ﺍﯼ ﮐـﻪ‬ ‫ﺖ ﺩﺍ‬ ‫ ﺍﻧﺘ ﺸﺎﺭ ﻣ ﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﻧﻤﻮ ﺩﺍﺭ 5 ﺩﻗﻴﻘﻪ ﺍﯼ ﻫﻤﻪ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻪ ﻧ ﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﯾـﻦ ﺍﺳـﺖ‬ ‫ ﮐﻪ ﺍﻏﻠﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﻣﯽ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺯﻭﺩﺗـﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺩﯾﮕـﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ ﻋﻤﻞ ﮐﻨﻨ . ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ(‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ﺪ)‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺭ ﺩﯼ ﺍﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﯾـﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠـﻪ ﮔـﺮﺍﻥ ﺟ ﺴـﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺑـ ﯽ ﺑـﺎﮎ ﺑـﻪ ﻧﻈـﺮ ﻣـﯽ‬ ‫ ﺭﺳﻨﺪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻴ ﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﯽ ﺷﺎﻥ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑـﻪ‬ ‫ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﺩﯾﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﮑﻨﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠـﻪ ﮔـﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﯾﮕـﺮ ﺳـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ ﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻨﮓ ﺁﻭﺭﻧ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﻣﮕﺮ ﻧﻪ ﺍﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻭﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻟـﻪ ﺭﻭ‬ ‫ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﻴﺪ ؟‬ ‫ ﺑ ـﻪ ﻭﺿـ ﺡ ﺍﯾ ـﻦ ﻣﻬ ـﻢ ﺗ ـﺮﯾﻦ ﻗــﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﺳ ـﺖ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻟ ـﻪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺭﻭﻧــﺪ ﺑﺎﺷــﻴﺪ٬ﺭﻭﻧﺪ‬ ‫ :"‬ ‫ـﻮ‬ ‫ ﺩﻭ ﺳﺖ ﺷﻤﺎﺳ ".‬ ‫ﺖ‬ ‫ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﻧﺒـﺎﻝ ﮐﻨﻨـﺪ ﻧـﻪ ﺍﯾﻨﮑـﻪ‬ ‫ ﺑ ﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻫﺮ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﯾﺎ ﺍﺧﺒﺎﺭﯼ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺟـﺰ ﺍﻭﻟـﻴﻦ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺷـﻮﻧﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺑـﻪ‬ ‫ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ .‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻏﻠ ـﺐ ﻣــﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺗﻨﻬــﺎ ﺗﻌ ـﺪﺍ ﺩ ﮐﻤ ـﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺍ ﺩﻩ ﻫ ﺎﯼ ﺍﻗﺘﺼــﺎﺩﯼ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤ ـﺎﻥ ﺯﻣــﺎﻥ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ .ﺍﻏﻠﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﭘﻴ ﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﺘ ﺸـﺎﺭ ﺍﯾـﻦ ﺍﺧﺒـﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ‬ ‫ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﺩﻗﻴﻖ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎ ﻧﻤـ ﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻨـ ﺩﺭ ﺯ ﻣـﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺘ ﺸـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺪ.‬ ‫ ﺍﺧﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﯾﮏ ﺣﺮﮐﺖ ﺑﺮﮔﺸﺘ ﯽ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ .‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ ﻨﻨـﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ ﺧﻴﻠﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻗﻴﻤـﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺑـﻪ ﺩﻗـﺖ ﺩﻧﺒـﺎﻝ ﻣـﯽ ﮐ‬ ‫ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣ ﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺷﺮﻭﻉ ﯾﮏ ﺭﻭﺪ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣـ ﯽ ﺩﻫـﺪ ﻋﺠﻮﻻﻧـﻪ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣ ﯽ ﺷﻮﻧ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻫـﻴﭻ ﺯﻣـﺎﻧ ﯽ ﺭﺍ ﺑـﺮﺍﯼ ﺗﺤﻠﻴـﻞ ﻭ ﺁﻧـﺎﻟﻴﺰ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻗﺒـﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼـﺎﺹ ﻧﻤـﯽ‬ ‫ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ .ﺯﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻴ ﻔﻬﻤﻨﺪ ﻭﺭﻭ ﺩ ﺍﺷﺘﺒﺎﻫﯽ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﻧﺪ ﺩﺭﺳﺖ ﻣﻮﻗ ﻌﯽ ﺍﺳـﺖ‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ ﮐﻪ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺷﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺿﺮﺭ ﻓﺮﻭ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳ .‬ ‫ﺖ‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﻣ ﻌﺎ ﻠـ ـﻪ ﮔـ ـﺮﯼ ﻓـ ـﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﺧﻴﻠـ ـﯽ ﻣ ﺸـــﺘﺎﻕ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺑـ ـﻪ ﺑـ ـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻧﺒﺎﺷـــﻴﺪ ﺑـ ـﺮ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ﻣ‬ ‫ ﺍﺣﺴﺎﺳﺎﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻣ ﯽ ﺷـﻮﻧﺪ ﻓﮑـﺮ ﮐﻨﻴـﺪ ﺩﯾـﺮ ﺷـﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺳـﻮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳـﺘﺘﺎﻥ‬ ‫ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﻋﺠﻮﻻﻧﻪ ﺗﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻏﻠﺒﻪ ﮐﻨﻴﺪ.‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ ﺯﻣﺎﻧ ﯽ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺗﺤﻠﻴ ﻞ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺍﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺧﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﻨﺘﺸـﺮ ﺷـﺪﻩ‬ ‫ ﭼﻪ ﻫ ﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎ ﺹ ﺩﻫﻴ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﻴﺪ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻫﻤـﻪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺪ.‬ ‫ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻴﺪ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﮐﻤ ﯽ ﺩﯾﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ .‬ ‫ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺩﺭﺳﺘ ﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺮﮐﺘﻴﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻧ ﯽ ﮐـﻪ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺴـﺘﻪ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﭼﻴـﺰﯼ‬ ‫ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﯽ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﮕﺮ ﺍﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣـﺎﻥ ﮔﺸـﺎﯾ ﺶ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﺗ ﻔﺎﻗـﺎﺕ ﺩﯾﮕـﺮﯼ‬ ‫ ﺑﻴﻔﺘ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺍﯾﻦ ﭼﻴﺰﯼ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻟﻪ ﺭﻭﯼ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻣـﯽ ﮔـﻮﺋﻴﻢ ﺗـﺎ ﺯﻣـﺎﻧ ﯽ ﮐـﻪ ﺭﻭﻧـﺪ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻋﻮﺽ ﻧﺸﺪ ﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﻴ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺷﺘﺒﺎﻩ .ﺣﺮﺹ ﻭ ﺁﺯﻣﻨﺪﯼ:‬ ‫ .2 ‬ ‫ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺧﻴﻠ ﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺑـﻪ ﺧـﺎﻃﺮ‬ ‫ ﺣﺮﺹ ﻭ ﻃﻤﻊ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺭﻭﯼ ﺑﻪ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣ ﯽ ﺁﻭﺭﻧ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﺑ ـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓ ـﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﺑ ـﻪ ﺩﺳ ـﺖ ﺁﻭﺭ ﺩﻥ 01 ﺗ ـﺎ 03 ﺩﺭ ﺻ ـﺪ ﺳ ـﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﭼﻨ ـﺪﺍﻥ ﺩﺷ ـﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ ﻧﻴﺴ .ﭼﻴﺰﯼ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﯾﺎﻥ ﯾﮏ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﯼ ﺍﮐﺜﺮ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔـﺮﺍﻥ ﯾـﻦ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺖ ‬ ‫ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﺯﻧﺪﻩ ﻣ ﯽ ﺳﺎﺯﺩ ﺣﺮ ﺹ ﻭ ﻃﻤﻊ ﺁﻧﻬﺎﺳ .‬ ‫ﺖ‬ ‫ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﺑﻪ 01 ﺗﺎ 03 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺳـﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺭﺍﺿـ ﯽ ﻧﻴ ﺴـﺘﻨﺪ‬ ‫ ﭼﻴﺰﯼ ﮐﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ 2 3 ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﺳ .‬ ‫ﺖ‬ ‫ ﯾﺎ‬ ‫ ﺍﻣﺮﻭ ﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻥ ﺍﮐﺜﺮ ﺟﻔﺖ ﺍﺭﺯﻫـﺎ ﺑـﻦ 001 ﺗـﺎ 003 ﭘﻴـﭗ ﺩﺭﺭﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺯ‬ ‫ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﮐ ﺴﺐ 05 ﺗﺎ 001 ﭘﻴﭗ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺯ ﺧﻴﻠ ﯽ ﻣﺸﮑ ﻞ ﻧﻴ ﺴﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺖ ﺍﮐﺜﺮ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺴﺐ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺗ ﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﭘﻴﭗ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺯ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺁﻧﻬـﺎ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ ﺑ ﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺴﺐ 05 ﺗﺎ 001 ﭘﻴﭗ ﺣﺮﯾﺺ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺧﻴﻠﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤـﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﺯ‬ ‫ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ 05 ﺗﺎ 001 ﭘﻴﭗ ﺑﻌﺪﯼ ﻫﺴﺘﻨ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﯾﺎﻥ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﺯ ﻣﻌﻤـﻮﻻ ﻫـﺮ ﭼﻴـﺰﯼ ﮐـﻪ ﺑـﻪ‬ ‫ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭ ﺩﻩ ﺍﯾﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﻴ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﻏﻠﺒﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺮ ﺹ ﻭ ﻃﻤﻊ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﻫﺮ ﺭﻭﺯﺗﺎﻥ ﯾـﮏ ﻫـﺪﻑ ﻭﺍﻗـﻊ ﮔﺮﺍﯾﺎﻧـﻪ ﺩﺍﺷـﺘﻪ‬ ‫ ﺑﺎﺷﻴﺪ ﻣﺜﻼ 05 ﭘﻴﭗ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭ .ﺯﻣﺎﻧ ﯽ ﮐﻪ 05 ﭘﻴﭗ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻴﺪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﮐﺎﺭ ﺑﮑ ﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺸـﻴ‬ ‫ﺯ ‬ ‫ ﮐﺎﻣﭙﻴﻮﺗﺮﺗــﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺧــﺎﻣﻮﺵ ﮐﻨﻴــﺪ ﻓــﺮ ﺽ ﻣ ـ ﯽ ﮐﻨــﻴﻢ ﺷ ـﻤﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﯾــﻖ ﮐــﺎﻣﭙﻴﻮﺗﺮ‬ ‫)‬ ‫ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﺘﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣ ﯽ ﺩﻫﻴ .(‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺑ ﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﻧﮑﻨﻴﺪ ﮐـﻪ ﻗﻴﻤـﺖ ﺭﻭﯼ ﭼـﻪ ﻋـﺪ ﺩﯼ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﯾـﺎ ﺑـﻪ ﻧﻤـﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺑـﺮﺍﯼ‬ ‫ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﯾﮏ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺩﯾﮕﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﻧﮑﻨﻴﺪ.‬ ‫ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﻭﺯ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ 05 ﭘﻴﭗ ﮐﺴﺐ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﮐﻨﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﻗﯽ‬ ‫ ﺭﻭﺯﺗﺎﻥ ﻟﺬﺕ ﺑﺒﺮﯾ ﮐﺎﺭﯼ ﺭﺍ ﮐﻪ ﺩﻭﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺭﯾﺪ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﻫﻴ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺪ.‬ ‫ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺷﺘﺒﺎﻩ .ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩ ﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﭖ ﻻﺱ ﺣﺪ ﺿﺮﺭ(:‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ )‬ ‫ .3 ‬ ‫ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﺳﻪ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺷﮑ ﻞ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫ :‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ . ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺻﻌﻮﺩﯼ‬ ‫1‬ ‫ . ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻧﺰﻭﻟﯽ‬ ‫2‬ ‫ . ﻓﻀﺎﯼ ﺭﻧﺞ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻤﮑـﻦ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﺑ ﻌـﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺩﯾﮕـﺮ ﺑـﻪ ﺭﻭﻧـﺪ ﻗﺒﻠـ ﯽ ﺑـﺮ‬ ‫3‬ ‫ ﻧﮕﺮﺩ .‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻮﺯﯾﺸﻨﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺧﻼﻑ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺩﺍﺭﯾﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺍﺳـﺘﺎﭖ ﺷـﻤﺎ ﺧـﻮﺭ ﺩﻩ ﺍﺳـﺖ‬ ‫ ﭘ‬ ‫ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻭ ﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻧﺘـﺎﯾﺞ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤـﺎﻥ ﺟﻬـﺖ‬ ‫ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻨ ﯽ ﺩﯾﮕﺮ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻧﮑﻨﻴﺪ .‬ ‫ ﺍﮔﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﻫﺮ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﭘﺎﯾﺎﻧ ﯽ ﻭﺟﻮ ﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ٬ﺍﻣﺎ ﮐ ﺴﯽ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧـﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﮐـﻪ ﻧﻘـﺎﻁ‬ ‫ ﺳ ﻘﻒ ﻭ ﮐﻒ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺑﺪﺍﻧ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﯼ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﮐـﻪ ﺳـﺒﺐ‬ ‫ﺪ.‬ ‫ ﺗﺸﮑﻴﻞ ﺳﻘﻒ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﮐﻒ ﻫﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮ .‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﺖ ﺍﮐﺜﺮ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺭﺍ ﻣـﯽ‬ ‫ ﺩﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺁﻧﻬـﺎ ﯾـﮏ ﺍﺷـﺘﺒﺎﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑـﻪ ﮐـﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﮑـﺮﺍﺭ ﻣـﯽ ﮐﻨﻨـﺪ ﻭ ﺑـﺮﺍﯼ‬ ‫ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻌﻴﺖ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺩﯾﮕﺮﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺧﻼﻑ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﻨـﺪ ﻧﺘﻴﺠـﻪ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ﺿ‬ ‫ ﺍ ﺵ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻣ ﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺻﺪ ﭘﻴﭗ ﯾﺎ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﭘﻴـﭗ ﺿـﺮﺭ‬ ‫ ﻋﺎﯾﺪﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮ ﺩ.‬ ‫ ﺧﻴﻠ ﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﻣﻮﻗﻌ ﯽ ﮐﻪ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻨﺸـﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺿـﺮﺭ ﻓـﺮﻭ‬ ‫ ﻣﯽ ﺭﻭﺩ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺭﺍ ﻫﺞ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﯾﻦ ﮐﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﯾﮏ ‪ Buy‬ﯾﺎ ‪ Sell‬ﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺧ‬ ‫ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﻗﺒﻠﯽ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﻗﻔ ﻞ ﮐﺮﺩﻥ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﻭ ﺛﺎﺑـﺖ ﻣﺎﻧـﺪﻥ ﺿـﺮﺭ ﺍﻧﺠـﺎﻡ ﻣـﯽ‬ ‫ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ .‬ ‫ ﻣﺒﺘﮑﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺷﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎﯼ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺗﺎﯾﻮﺍﻧﯽ ﻭ ﻫﻨـﮓ ﮐﻨﮕـﯽ ﻫﺴـﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﯾـﻦ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ ﺗﮑﻨﻴﮑﻬﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﻭﺣ ﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠـﻪ ﮔـﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣـﺎﻧﯽ ﮐـﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻨ ﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺿﺮﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻃﺮﺍﺣﯽ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠـﻪ‬ ‫ ﮔﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﺪ ﺗﺎ ﯾﮏ ﺑﺎﺯﻧﮕﺮﯼ ﺩﯾﮕﺮ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﺣ ﻘﻴ ﻘﺖ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻫﺞ ﮐﺮ ﺩﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻧ ﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺭﺳـﯽ ﻣﺠـﺪ ﺩﯼ‬ ‫ ﺍﻧﺠـﺎﻡ ﻣ ـﯽ ﺩﻫﻨـﺪ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸ ـﻦ ﺍﻭﻝ ﮐـﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺿ ـﺮﺭ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﮕ ـﻪ ﻣـ ﯽ ﺩﺍﺭﻧ ـﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺩﻭﻡ )ﺧﻼﻑ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻗﺒﻠﯽ( ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﯼ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺗﺴﻮﯾﻪ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ .‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻣ ﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺑﺎﺭ ﻫﺞ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﮐﺎﺭ ﺑـﻪ ﺟـﺎﺋﯽ‬ ‫ ﻣﯽ ﺭﺳﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻨ ﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺿﺮﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﭘﻴﭗ‬ ‫ (‬ ‫)‬ ‫ ﺿﺮﺭ ﻓﺮﻭ ﻣ ﯽ ﺭﻭﺩ .‬ ‫ ﺍﮐﺜﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﺍﯼ ﺍﯾﻦ ﭼﻨﻴﻨﯽ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﻧﺪ .ﻣﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻣﺎﻧﺪﻥ‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺴﺘﻦ ﺿﺮﺭ ﯾﺎ ﺑﺴﺘﻦ ﭘﻮﺯﯾ ﺸ .‬ ‫ﻦ‬ ‫ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﮑﻪ ﭘﻮﺯﯾ ﺸﻦ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨـﺪ ﺻـﺪ ﭘﻴـﭗ ﺿـﺮﺭ ﺳـﺖ ﺑـﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﺳـﺘﺎﭖ( ﻣﻨﺘﻈـﺮ‬ ‫ ‬ ‫)‬ ‫ ﺍ‬ ‫ ﺯ ﻣـﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳ ـﺐ ﺍﺳ ـﺖ ﮐ ـﻪ ﺑ ـﺎ 02 ﯾـﺎ 03 ﭘﻴ ـﭗ ﺿ ـﺮﺭ ﺧ ـﺎﺭﺝ ﺷ ـﻮﺩ ٬ﻭﻗﺘ ـﯽ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺩﺭ 02 ﯾﺎ 03 ﭘﻴﭗ ﺿﺮﺭ ﻓﺮﻭ ﻣـ ﯽ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻣﻨﺘﻈـﺮ ﺯﻣـﺎﻧ ﯽ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﮐـﻪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺷﻮﺩ .ﻭﻗﯽ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧ ﻘﻄﻪ ﺳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮ ﺑـﺮ ﻣـﯽ‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﻣ ﯽ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﺎ 02 ﯾﺎ 03 ﭘﻴﭗ ﺳﻮ ﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺷﻮ ﺩ .‬ ‫ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﮏ ﺷﺨﺺ ﺣﺮﯾﺺ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺧـﺮﻭﺝ ﻣﻨﺎﺳـﺐ ﺍﺯ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻫﻴﭽﮕـﺎ ﻩ ﻓـﺮﺍ ﻧﻤـﯽ‬ ‫ﯾ‬ ‫ ﺭﺳـﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺳـﺘﺎﭖ ﻻﺱ ﺍﺳـﺘﻔﺎﺩ ﻩ ﮐﻨﻴـﺪ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸـﻦ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺒﻨﺪﯾـﺪ ﻭ ﺑﭙﺬﯾﺮﯾـﺪ ﮐ ـﻪ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ ﺍﺷﺘﺒﺎﻩ ﮐﺮ ﺩﻩ ﺍﯾﺪ .‬ ‫ ﺍﮔ ـﺮ ﺑ ـﺎ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸ ـﻦ ﻫــﺎﯼ ﺑــﺎﺯ ﻣﺎﺭﺟﻴﻨﺘــﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﮔﻴ ـﺮ ﻧﮑ ـﺮ ﺩﻩ ﺑﺎﺷــﻴﺪ ﻫﻤﻴ ﺸــﻪ‬ ‫ ﻓﺮﺻﺘﻬﺎﯼ ﺩﯾﮕﺮﯼ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻫ ﺴ .‬ ‫ﺖ‬ ‫ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺷﺘﺒﺎﻩ 4 ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻔ ﺲ:‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ﻧ‬ ‫ . .‬ ‫ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﻧـﺎﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﮐـﻪ ﻣﻮﺟـﺐ ﺿـﺮﺭ ﻭﺯﯾـﺎﻥ ﺷـﺪﻩ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﻣﻤﮑـﻦ‬ ‫ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺑـﻪ ﻧﻔ ﺴـﺶ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳـﺖ ﺑﺪﻫـﺪ ٬ﺑﺘﺮﺳـﺪ ﻭ ﺑـﺮﺍﯼ‬ ‫ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺩﻭ ﺩﻝ ﺑﺎﺷ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺯ ﮐﺮ ﺩﻥ ﯾﮏ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺭﻭﻧـﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻴﻤـﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳـﺐ ﻋﺼـﺒﯽ‬ ‫ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮ ﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺩﺭ 01 ﭘﻴﭗ ﺩ ﺭﻓـﺖ ﺑﺘﺮﺳـﺪ ﮐـﻪ ﺍﯾـﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﻮ‬ ‫ ﺳﻮﺩ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﺮﻭ .‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ ﻓ ﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻔ ﺲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠـﻪ ﮔـﺮﺍﻥ ﻓـﺎﺭﮐﺲ‬ ‫ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺧﻮ ﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻮ ﺩ ﮐﻢ ﺑﺒﻨﺪﻧ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻪ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺿﺮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﮐﺜﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔـﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻄﻤـﺌﻦ ﻫ ﺴـﺘﻨﺪ‬ ‫ ﮐﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﭖ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻤ ﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺮ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮ ﺩ .‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫ ﺑﺮﻋﮑ ﺲ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻪ ﭘﻮﺯﯾ ﺸﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﯾـﻦ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨـﺎﻥ ﺑـﻪ ﺳـﻮﺩﺩﻫﯽ‬ ‫ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺿﺮﺭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ( ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭ ﺩ.‬ ‫ ‬ ‫)‬ ‫ ﺑﻪ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻋﻠﺖ ﺍﮐﺜﺮ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﭘﻮﺯﯾ ﺸﻦ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺩ ﮐﻢ ﻣﯽ ﺑﻨﺪﻧـﺪ‬ ‫ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻡ ﺿﺮﺭ ﺻﺒﺮ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸﻦ ﺍﺳـﺘﺎﭖ ﺑﺨـﻮﺭﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠـﻪ ﺍﮐﺜـﺮ‬ ‫ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺑﺎﺯﻧﺪﻩ ﻫﺴﺘﻨ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻌﺎ ﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﯼ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺿﺮﺭﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﮐﻨﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺯﻣـﺎﻧ ﯽ ﮐـﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠـﻪ‬ ‫ﻣ‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﺩﺩﻫ ﯽ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺻﺒﻮﺭ ﺑﺎﺷﻴ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺷﺘﺒﺎﻩ .ﺍﻭﺭ ﺗﺮﯾﺪ:‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ .5 ‬ ‫ ﺍﺷﺘﺒﺎﻩ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺩﯾﮕﺮﯼ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺴﺎﺑ ﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﺮﺗﮑﺐ ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺍﻭﺭ ﺗﺮﯾﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺭﯾ ﺴﮑﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻭﺟـﻮﺩ ﻣـﺎﺭﺟﻴﻦ ﻭ ﻟـﻮﺭﯾﺞ‬ ‫ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﯾﺸﺎﻥ ﺍﯾﺠﺎﺩ ﮐﻨ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﻣﻌﻤ ـﻮﻻ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸ ـﻦ ﻫ ـﺎﺋﯽ ﺑﻬﺘ ـﺮ ﻫﺴ ـﺘﻨﺪ ﮐ ـﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣ ـﺎﺭﺟﻴﻨ ﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺣ ـﺪ ﻇﺮﻓﻴ ـﺖ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺪ ﻣﺎﺭﺟﻴﻦ ﻭ ﻟﻮﺭﯾﺞ ﯾﮏ ﺷﻤﺸﻴﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻟﺒﻪ ﺗﻴﺰ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ.‬ ‫ ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ ﺍﮐﺜﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠـﻪ ﮔـﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﻨﻬـﺎ 0001 ﺩﻻﺭ ﻧﻴـﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﻧـﺪ ﺗـﺎ 000001 ﺩﻻﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳـﺖ‬ ‫ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻟﻮﺭﯾﺞ 001:1 ( ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺑـﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﻨـﯽ ﻧﻴﺴـﺖ ﮐـﻪ ﺑـﺎ 0005‬ ‫)‬ ‫ ﺩﻻﺭ ﺗﺎ ﺳﻘﻒ 000005 ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﻫﻴ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﺪ ﺗـﺎ ﺳـﻘﻒ 000001 ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑـﻪ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻠـﻪ ﺑﭙﺮﺩﺍﺯﯾـﺪ‬ ‫ 000001 ﺩﻻﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻴ . ﻟﻮﺭﯾﺞ 1:1 ﻧﻪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺎ 0001 ﺩﻻﺭ.‬ ‫ ‬ ‫(‬ ‫ﺪ)‬ ‫ ﯾﮏ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺗﺠﺮﺑ ﯽ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻴﭽﮕﺎﻩ ﺑـﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ 01 ﺩﺭﺻـﺪ ﻣـﺎﺭﺟﻴﻦ‬ ‫ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﺍﺳﺘ ﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﮑﻨﻴﺪ.‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ ﺳﺨﻦ ﭘﺎﯾﺎﻧﯽ :‬ ‫ ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻨﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓـﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﮐـﺎﺭ ﺳـﺎ ﺩﻩ ﺍﯼ ﻧﻴﺴـﺖ ﻭﮔﺮﻧـﻪ ﺍﻻﻥ ﻫﻤـﻪ‬ ‫ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐﺲ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻧﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻧ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ ﺩﺭ ﺣ ﻘﻴ ﻘﺖ 0 % ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﭘﻮﻟﺸﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣ ﯽ ﺩﻫﻨ ﺑـﻪ‬ ‫ﺪ.‬ ‫9‬ ‫ ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻓﺎﮐﺘﻮﺭﻫﺎﯼ ﻓﺮﺍﻭﺍﻧﯽ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﮐـﻪ ﻓ ﺸـﺎﺭ‬ ‫.‬ ‫ ﻋﻈﻴﻤﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻧﻮ ﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﻧ .‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺳ‬ ‫ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﮑﻨﻴﮑـﺎﻝ ﯾـﺎ ﻓﺎﻧـﺪﺍﻣﻨﺘﺎﻝ ﺑـﻪ ﻃـﻮﺭ ﺻـﺤﻴﺢ ﻭ ﺩﻗﻴـﻖ ﺭﻭﻧـﺪ ﺑـﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻧﻤﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ .‬ ‫ ﻗﺒ ﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺍﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﻴﺪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻓﺮﺍﻭﺍﻧـ ﯽ ﺑـﻪ ﺩﺳـﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﯾـﺪ ﺑﺎﯾـﺪ ﺑﺎﺭﻫـﺎ ﭘﻮﺯﯾﺸـﻦ‬ ‫ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﯾﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻔﻬﻤﻴﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﮐ ﺲ ﭼﻄﻮﺭ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣ ﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺗﺎﯾﻢ ﻓﺮﯾﻢ‬ ‫ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺼﺎﺕ ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﮐﻨﻴﺪ.‬ ...
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This note was uploaded on 07/11/2011 for the course FOREX 1011 taught by Professor 45263 during the Spring '11 term at Bethany CA.

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