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ARTS 1810 - Lecture 5 - ARTS 1810 International Relations...

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Unformatted text preview: ARTS 1810 International Relations in the Twentieth Century The The onset of Cold War, 1945-50 1945- US President Truman with Soviet leader Stalin at Potsdam in 1945 Dr Andrea Benvenuti Semester I, 2009 The end of an era WWII ended in August 1945 Across Europe, Asia, Mid-east WWII left immense Middestruction WWII also shattered the international system beyond recognition It produced the most sweeping redistribution of power in history Japan, Japan, Germany & Italy defeated and occupied The end of an era and the start of a new one UK UK and France reduced to second-rank powers second- The ‘euro-centric’ world had come to an end ‘euro- The new era (1945-89) Pre-1945 era marked by ‘multipolarity’ Pre- 19451945-89 period characterised by ‘bipolarity’ Intense Intense competition between superpowers ‘Shifting ‘Shifting alliances' replaced by rigid 'blocs' The superpowers ‘balance ‘balance of power’ replaced by ‘mutual deterrence’ Deterrence Heightened/protracted Heightened/protracted tensions Wars Wars by proxies Policy or strategy based on the threat of massive retaliation in the event of an attack CW’s CW’s global reach 1 Lecture Plan How the Cold War came about Situation at the end of WWII Emergence of two superpowers Tensions within the war-time coalition warThe superpowers Soviet policy in Eastern Europe (EE) Revolution in US foreign policy Escalating tensions and formation of blocs The origins of the Cold War Little or no agreement on who is to blame for the start of the CW Different theories: Orthodox Orthodox Revisionist Revisionist PostPost-revisionist Little agreement on which factors played major role US and USSR troops meet on the Elbe river in 1945 Different Different scholars focus on different factors: Ideology Ideology Geopolitics Geopolitics Economics Economics Perceptions/misperceptions/belief Perceptions/misperceptions/belief system The US and USSR: a comparison US as an economic power Produced Produced 50% of world’s industrial output Accounted Accounted for 1/3 of total world’s exports US was also a military power US US ascendancy because of economic power Flag raising on Iwo Jima USSR pre-eminence in spite of economic power pre- USSR in ruin after WWII 15% 15% of population (27 million) killed 50% 50% of infrastructure destroyed 2 How did the Cold War come about, then? It takes two to make Cold War Yet, main responsibility lies with Stalin’s USSR USSR wanted to strengthen its position in Europe Three factors seemed to make his job easy Total Total defeat of Germany Withdrawal Withdrawal of US troops from Europe Stalin Western Western Europe on the edge of economic collapse Soviet actions entailed US reaction Escalation The US and early post-war strategy Roosevelt/Truman wanted co-operation coto continue US US public opinion and Congress UN UN (1945) as means of continuing collaboration US had no intention to remain engaged in Europe Churchill, Truman and Stalin at Potsdam in 1945 Withdrawal Withdrawal of US forces from Europe End End of general conscription Stalin’s views Stalin didn’t rule out cooperation, but saw it as temporary The dynamic within capitalism would lead to conflict URSS could ill afford another war He He did not want confrontation with US Initially Stalin showed caution The Red flag over Berlin (1945) He He strengthened hold on territories gained during the war parts parts of Finland Baltic Baltic republics parts parts of Poland Parts Parts of Romania 3 Stalin’s policy in Eastern Europe (1) Gradually, he strengthened USSR influence over EE He began dictating character of EE regimes He He allowed for multiparty coalition But But he put communists in positions of influence Militarily, USSR stood astride half of Europe Stalin saw no problem in increasing influence in EE Behind the smiles … US US had accepted Soviet influence in EE Stalin thought he had a right to protect Russia’s interests in EE Stalin’s policy in Eastern Europe (2) Stalin’s policy as ‘cautious expansionism’ ‘Territorial security’ was cornerstone of Stalin’s FP Fear Fear of a resurgent Germany ‘Territorial ‘Territorial belt' around the USSR Poland Poland clearest example He showed flexibility on Finland and Austria Eastern Europe after the war Allies saw USSR as expansionist power Allies had not agreed to ‘Sovietisation’ of EE Truman’s concerns about Soviet behaviour Truman was alarmed by Soviet behaviour In particular he was concerned about: Soviet Soviet efforts to strengthen communist parties in EE Continued Continued presence of USSR troops in EE Soviet Soviet policy in occupied Germany Stalin and Truman Feb Feb 1946 speech calling for rearmament Moscow’s Moscow’s calls on Turkey for transit in the Straits Presumed Presumed Soviet role in Greece 4 The German question US/UK & USSR had agreed on steps regarding German issue Frictions among former allies raised suspicions USSR authorities requisitioned: Machinery, Machinery, power plants and railway tracks Coal Coal and other raw materials The German settlement ‘Denazification’ Demilitarisation USSR refused to furnish farm produce US terminated transfer of reparations to USSR Establishment of 4 occupation zones Single administration under the Allied Control Council Turkey and Greece (1945-47) (1945- In 1945 USSR called on Turkey to grant: improved improved transit through the Straits military military base in the Bosporus Stalin’s heavy tactics Pressure on Turkey Communist guerrilla warfare in Northern Greece Greek communist supported by Yugoslavia, Albania, Bulgaria But Stalin not involved in the crisis Kennan’s 'Long Telegram' (Moscow, 22.2.1946) Strong anti-Soviet consensus emerged in antiWashington In 1946 US Admin began to support line advocated Kennan George Kennan Kennan Kennan warned Truman of: Soviet Soviet penchant for expansion Containment Need Need for US to oppose Soviet expansionism Kennan Kennan called for flexible ‘containment’ Strategy aimed at keeping the USSR in check and reining in its perceived expansionary tendencies 5 The ‘Truman Doctrine’ (March 1947) In 1947 Truman abandoned earlier caution He urged Congress ‘to support free peoples’ of Europe He He had Greece & Turkey in mind He He also ready to extend assistance to all WE Truman address to the Congress on 12 March 1946 TD first step towards deeper engagement in WE Truman felt that if US were tough, Stalin would backtrack The ‘Marshall Plan’ (1947) US involvement to reach a new height In midIn mid-1947 Marshall proposed a ‘European Recovery Program’ (ERP) It showed US willingness to avoid isolationism ‘The Plan’ was intended: George Marshall, Secretary of State (1947-49) to to relieve WE from economic distress save save it from political unrest and 'communist contagion' Foster Foster US growth through rehabilitation of WE Ensure Ensure viability of liberal economic system that US wanted to build A change of gear in USSR policy in EE Until 1947 Stalin kept in power 'transitional' regimes acceptable to West After Marshall Plan, he became less cautious Cominform Cominform (Sept 1947) ‘Two ‘Two camps theory’ (Sept 1947) USSR imposed political/economic ‘conformity’ on EE An increasingly divided Europe Communists Communists in control of levers of power Opposition Opposition banned Dissent Dissent crushed 6 The Berlin Blockade (1948-49) In 1948 US/UK/Fr consolidated their zones into single German state USSR alarmed at prospect of strong West Germany It imposed blockade on West Berlin in June 1948 Countering the Soviet blockade of West Berlin West responded by mounting massive airlift Stalin’s Stalin’s 'brinkmanship' ended in failure It accelerated plans to create independent West Germany … … to negotiate a defensive military alliance The West Europeans and the Cold War These events posed tough choices on West Europeans Was Was it possible and/or desirable to avoid siding with superpowers? Who Who constituted the real threat in the long-term? longCould Could the ‘isolationist US’ be trusted? How How far would WE tolerate Germany & Italy’s rapid rehabilitation? British PM Clement Attlee UK most determined to seek US guarantee Sweden favoured neutralism The North Atlantic Treaty (April 1949) US guarantee to Europe not an easy task for Truman French & UK efforts were rewarded in April 1949 In In Washington ‘North Atlantic Treaty’ signed political political alliance with defence commitments Sec. of State Acheson signs the NATO Treaty In the 1950s NAT was transformed into military organisation (NATO) NATO was US commitment to WE security First First formal alliance US had ever entered into 7 Conclusions Main responsibility for start of CW lies with USSR Moves and countermoves deepened US-USSR USGrowing polarization entrenched Cold War in Europe US initiatives unthinkable only 10 yrs before The Cold War moves to Asia The The age of US globalism was under way URSS now controlled half of Europe In 1949 USSR detonated first nuclear device Confrontation would now move to Asia 8 ...
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