ARTS 1810 - Lecture 12 (Tuesday lecture) [Comp

ARTS 1810 - Lecture 12 (Tuesday lecture) [Comp - ARTS 1810...

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Unformatted text preview: ARTS 1810 International Relations in the XX century The post-Cold War era US President Barack Obama at the G-20 Summit in London, April 2009 Dr Andrea Benvenuti Semester I, 2009 Introduction CW as the last “great conflict” of XX century While mainly “cold” CW was not without costs Like 1915 & 1945, 1989 was full of promise for a better future … The fall of the Berlin Wall … but also full of risks/uncertainties Collapse Collapse of one “power centre” could create instability For starters, the world looked far less predictable 1 Lecture menu What is the new international system like? Main Main features Main Main challenges US’s “unipolar moment” “unipolar What’s coming down? US US hegemony under Bush, Clinton and Bush Emergence of a multipolar world? … China, India, Russia, EU? China, Where are we heading for? The “hyper-power” Emergence Emergence of US as a “hyper-power” “hyper- Geopolitical change was one factor But But not the only one: Economic Economic growth Technological Technological advance Hubert Vedrine Cultural Cultural influence Few had foretold this outcome In In 1980s many believed that US were in decline 2 US hegemony Concerns about US hegemony at end of CW Liberals/nationalists debate in US In early 1990s danger was not an America that acted alone … … Danger was an America that didn’t lead Is Uncle Sam the new hegemon? Despite its power, US didn’t look keen to project its power No desire to expend US blood and treasure Hegemony A system regulated by a dominant leader US role in the world under Bush snr US as a superpower without a mission Bush believed that US should remain engaged in world affairs For Bush US had to play a leading role, but its power embedded in international institutions US President George Bush snr (1988-92) One example was Bush’s “grand coalition” against Saddam Hussein The war in Iraq (1991) 3 The I Gulf War (1990-91) In Aug 1990 Saddam invaded Kuwait CashCash-strapped Saddam needed extra-oil revenue extra- Bush took the lead in securing UN resolution In Jan 1991 “Desert Storm” launched Saddam Hussein US-led military campaign showed America’s USoverwhelming military might Greater US involvement in Mideast “It’s the economy, stupid!” Despite his FP successes, Bush lost 1992 election Clinton came to power focussing on domestic issues Former Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton His priorities were: reducing reducing the federal debt stimulating stimulating economy introducing introducing health, education and welfare reforms 4 US hegemony under Clinton? Clinton reluctant to take up commitments abroad “Multilateralist” agenda Multilateralist” Foreign trade and human rights In 1993 Clinton sent troops into Somalia to deal with the growing chaos Clinton, Christopher and Yeltsin The The killing of 18 US soldiers put pressure on Clinton to pull out Americans lukewarm on US role as “world policeman” Republicans favoured modest US world role The Bosnian crisis (1992-95) US reluctance to exercise leadership evident in Bosnian crisis In In 1992 B-H voted for independence from Yugoslavia B- FullFull-scale war between Bosnian Serbs, Croats & Muslims broke out UN peacekeepers in Bosnia Clinton acquiesced to EU opposition to air-strikes air- He He let EU and UN take the lead In 1994-95 US pushed Europeans to carry out NATO 1994air-strikes against Bosnian Serbs air- 5 The Kosovo crisis (1998-99) Clinton’s second term saw US play more assertive role In 1998 serious crisis erupted in Kosovo Clinton Clinton took a much firmer stance NATO NATO began air-strikes to force Milosevic to relent air- Milosevic Milosevic didn’t, hence more NATO attacks Slobodan Milosevic Kosovo war as the apex of US influence in 1990s Bush jnr and America’s unipolar moment Until 2001 Bush reluctant to fully engage in world affairs The 9/11 shock Combined with greater American power, this led Bush to confront terrorism aggressively US US objectives to be achieved through US leadership Bush became much more willing to deploy US military power 9/11 Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) 6 From unipolarity back to the balance of power? Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq costly and still not over Limits to what US power can achieve 2008 2008 financial crisis and its impact on US economic power US US overstretch It’s a chilly place out there The end of the unipolar moment? The rise of a multipolar world? A new European centre of power? Europe was the real beneficiaries of end of CW Germany Germany reunited Eastern Eastern European countries now free Threat Threat of serious war eliminated Germany celebrates reunification End of Cold war set in train two processes in Europe Deepening Deepening of European integration Widening Widening to the East A more integrated European Union (EU) Economically powerful, but lacking in political influence 7 Another centre of power? Russia? Russia’s transition to a market economy was tough Economic troubles impacted badly on Russian military might Yeltsin’s engagement with West criticised as ‘sell-out’ ‘sell- With With Putin/Medvedev greater authoritarianism and nationalism Putin with his successor Medvedev More More assertive FP and often anti-US anti- Russia has not the same resources as the USSR Financial crisis has hit Russia hard Asia’s two emerging powers CHINA Large population, big country with growing economy Still a poor country in terms of GDP per capita (122nd) INDIA Large population, big country with a growing economy Still a poor country in terms of GDP per capita (152nd) Nuclear deterrent Small nuclear deterrent Permanent seat in the UN Sec Council Large defence forces but with scarce power projection capabilities Large defence forces but with scarce power projection capabilities Financial crisis may have limited effect on China Financial crisis may have a limited effect on India How solid is the Communist regime in China? A wobbly but vibrant democracy 8 Is China a threat? The “Yes view” When powerful state emerges in IR, this is bound to disturb stability PRC faces deep fault lines in economy & society Faced with domestic discontent, CCP might turn to nationalism to meet legitimacy deficits Is this a threat? PRC threatens to take Taiwan by force and this could spark a serious international crisis PRC is undertaking a major renovation of its armed forces Is China a threat? The “No view” PRC’s rise does not need to be a threat PRC has established workable relations with neighbours China China became more integrated into multilateral institutions (i.e. WTO, APEC) What sort of China, then? (The Hindu, Chennai) PRC carefully manages its relations with the US PRC PRC has an important stake in in regional stability in in economic growth 9 Conclusions Cold War began in an atmosphere of euphoria But world seems to be facing a very uncertain future Terrorist Terrorist challenge Nuclear Nuclear proliferation (Iran and NK) Scramble Scramble for resources An uncertain world Systemic changes under way, but uncertain outcomes Great Great power rivalry isn’t undermining int. system No No emerging power is “anti-status quo” “anti- Can balance of power maintain stability? 10 ...
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