PETRO 4300 S 11 CLASS 5

PETRO 4300 S 11 CLASS 5 - PETRO 4300 PROPERTY(ASSET...

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Unformatted text preview: PETRO 4300 PROPERTY (ASSET) EVALUATION LECTURE 5 RESERVES • SIMPLEST DEFINITION – RESERVES ARE HYDROCARBON VOLUMES THAT HAVE NOT YET BEING PRODUCED. – THEY ARE THE REAL FUTURE VALUE OF THE ASSET YOU ARE “LOOKING AT” – THEY ARE ALWAYS AN ESTIMATE SINCE YOU CANNOT “MEASURE” – THERE IS ALWAYS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF RISK/ UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THESE ESTIMATED VOLUMES. METHODS TO ESTIMATE RESERVES • ANALOGY/STATISTICAL • VOLUMETRIC • PERFORMANCE METHODS TO ESTIMATE RESERVES • ANALOGY/STATISTICAL – TAKING A “SIMILAR” PROJECT, CARRY OUT AN EVALUATION OF ITS PERFORMANCE, IDENTIFYING THE PROJECT DRIVERS AND , ROADBLOCKS. FINALLY APPLY THESE FINDINGS TO THE PROJECT YOU ARE EVALUATING – ANALYZE THE PERFORMANCE OF A LARGE GROUP OF SIMILAR PROJECT AND “DISTILL” THE DRIVERS AND RESULT; THEN ‘CONNECT’ THEM USING SOME MATHEMATICAL/STATISTICAL APPROACH METHODS TO ESTIMATE RESERVES • VOLUMETRIC – BASED ON EVALUATING INFORMATION OBTAINED OFF LOGS, EXTRAPOLATING IT TO COVER THE SURROUNDING VOLUMES, “PAY” AND CALCULATING THE VOLUME OF: • ROCK • VOID VOLUME WITHIN THE ROCK • AMOUNT OF OIL GAS AND WATER WITHIN THE VOID SPACE • ORIGINAL VOLUME IN PLACE @ RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AND AT SURFACE CONDITIONS METHODS TO ESTIMATE RESERVES • PERFORMANCE – USUALLY REFERS TO PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE I.E. PRODUCTION OF HYDROCARBONS AS A FUNCTION OF TIME – THE PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE, PRODUCTION HISTORY, IS FIRST ‘FITTED’ BY AN EQUATION AND THEN FUTURE PERFORMANCE IS FORECASTED DECLINE ANALYSIS • ONE OF THE MOST USED TOOLS IN THE OIL AND GAS BUSINESS • PRODUCTION ENGINEERS USE IT FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN WORKOVERS, CONFORMANCE- INJECTION PROFILE CORRECTION, ARTIFICIAL LIFT IMPLEMENTATION/CHANGES. • RESERVOIR ENGINEERS USE IT TO FORECAST FUTURE PRODUCTION OF SINGLE WELLS, GROUP OF WELLS, LARGE UNIT. ALWAYS PART OF AN ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF A PROPERTY. • LANDMEN USE IT TO EVALUATE DEALS • ANYBODY THAT NEEDS TO HAVE AN ESTIMATE OF FUTURE PRODUCTION USES SOME TYPE OF DECLINE FORECASTING METHOD. DECLINE ANALYSIS • BEFORE WE GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THE DIFFERENT EQUATIONS, WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND SOME BASIC ISSUES. • WHAT ARE YOU USING THIS TECHNIQUE FOR: – SINGLE WELL – GROUP OF WELLS DECLINE ANALYSIS • FOR SINGLE WELLS UNDER A SET OF VERY STRICT ASSUMPTIONS IT CAN BE SHOWN THAT EXPONENTIAL DECLINE IS THE LONG TIME SOLUTION TO THE DIFFUSIVITY EQUATION WITH CONSTANT WELL BORE PRESSURE. • FOR SINGLE WELL ONLY , RESEARCHERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TIE DECLINE ANALYSIS WITH THE DETERMINATION OF RESERVOIR PROPERTIES SUCH AS PERMEABILITY , RESERVOIR VOLUME AND UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS SKIN FACTOR. • SOME RESEARCHERS HAVE USED THIS RELATIONSHIPS WITHIN THE BOUNDS OT THEORETICAL RESERVOIRS OTHER INSTEAD, HAVE EXTENDED INTO EMPIRICAL CASES....
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PETRO 4300 S 11 CLASS 5 - PETRO 4300 PROPERTY(ASSET...

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