Forecasting Homework Solutions.xls

Forecasting Homework Solutions.xls - (6-1)- F (6-1 ) F...

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OMGT401 Problems 3 Month Moving Average Month Actual Forecast Forecast Error Absolute Error Demand Demand 1 21,000 2 19,000 3 20,000 4 21,000 (21+19+20)/3 20,000 1,000 1000 5 18,000 (19+20+21)/3 20,000 -2,000 2000 6 20,000 (20+21+18)/3 19,667 333 333 7 17,000 (21+18+20)/3 19,667 -2,667 2667 8 (18+20+17)/3 18,333 AFE MAD 6000/4= 1500 3 Month Weighted Moving Average Using 0.5 for latest period, 0.3 for second last and 0. 2 for earliest Month Actual Forecast Forecast Error Absolute Error Demand Demand 1 21,000 2 19,000 3 20,000 4 21,000 19900 1,100 1,100 5 18,000 20300 -2,300 2,300 6 20,000 19300 700 700 7 17,000 19600 -2,600 2,600 8 18100 AFE MAD 1,675 Exponential Smoothing -3,334/4= -836 F t = F t-1 + α x (A t-1 - F t-1 )
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α =0.2 Month Actual Forecast Forecast Error Absolute Error Demand Demand 1 21,000 2 19,000 3 20,000 4 21,000 20,000 5 18,000 20,200 -2,200 2200 6 20,000 19,760 240 240 7 17,000 19,808 -2,808 2808 8 16438 AFE -1589.33 MAD 1749.33 F (5-1) + .2 x(A (5-1) - F (5-1 ) F (6-1) + .2x(A
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Unformatted text preview: (6-1)- F (6-1 ) F (7-1) + .2 x(A (7-1)- F (7-1 ) F (8-1) + .2x(A (8-1)- F (8-1 ) OMGT401 Problems 3 Month Moving Average Month Actual Forecast Forecast Error Demand Demand 1 21,000 2 19,000 3 20,000 4 21,000 5 18,000 6 20,000 7 17,000 8 AFE MAD 3 Month Weighted Moving Average Using 0.5 for latest period, 0.3 for second last and 0. 2 for earliest Month Actual Forecast Forecast Error Demand Demand 1 21,000` 2 19,000 3 20,000 4 21,000 5 18,000 6 20,000 7 17,000 8 AFE MAD Exponential Smoothing =0.2 Absolute Error Absolute Error F t = F t-1 + x (A t-1- F t-1 ) Month Actual Forecast Forecast Error Demand Demand 1 21,000 2 19,000 3 20,000 4 21,000 20,000 5 18,000 6 20,000 7 17,000 8 AFE MAD Std. Dev 2186 Absolute Error =1.25x MAD...
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This note was uploaded on 07/12/2011 for the course BUSINESS 446 taught by Professor Sherliy during the Spring '11 term at Seneca.

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Forecasting Homework Solutions.xls - (6-1)- F (6-1 ) F...

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