China Quarterly Update.doc - China Quarterly Update Overview In spite of the global recession China's economy grew 8.7 percent in 2009 Massive

China Quarterly Update.doc - China Quarterly Update...

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China Quarterly Update Overview In spite of the global recession, China's economy grew 8.7 percent in 2009. Massive investment- led stimulus was key, but real estate investment gained prominence more recently and household consumption growth has held up very well. The domestic growth momentum continued in the first months of 2010. Exports declined in 2009 as a whole, even as China gained global market share. With imports strong, external trade was a major drag on growth in 2009 and the external current account surplus declined sharply. Exports rebounded strongly through 2009, though, and exceeded the pre-crisis level in early 2010. In a heated real estate market, surging property prices triggered policy measures to expand supply and curb speculation. We project 9.5 percent GDP growth for this year, with a shift in the composition. Government-led investment is bound to decelerate. But, exports are likely to continue to recover amidst a pick up in the global economy and real estate activity is likely to grow strongly this year. Consumption
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