Lecture 30-cwo-disease

Lecture - Outline Disease Dynamics 1 Examples(inc measles 1 SIR models 1 Epidemics 1 Vaccinations 1 Persistence(endemics Examples Weekly deaths in

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1. Examples (inc. measles) 1. SIR models 1. Epidemics 1. Vaccinations 1. Persistence (endemics) Outline: Disease Dynamics
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Weekly deaths in Bombay (1906): plague Examples:
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Measles dynamics (pre-vaccination): 1944-1966
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Epidemics – outbreaks Epidemic dies out before all hosts are infected (or die) Epidemic recurs What determines if there will be an epidemic? Why does it die out? Why does it recur? Let’s start by building a model… Issues:
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SIR model: S I R Three states of host: 1) Susceptible (S) 2) Infected (I) 3) Removed (R): dead or immune [N = S+I+R] No host demography (no births or deaths) All hosts start as “S”
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SIR model: S I R Need to specify: 1) Conversion of S to I 2) Removal (I to R): β is “transmission rate”: set by contact rate and infection probability (“random encounter”) γ is removal rate 1/ γ is mean time an individual remains infective γ I β SI
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SIR model: S I R γ I β SI I dt dR I SI dt dI SI dt dS γ β = - = - = / / /
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This note was uploaded on 07/13/2011 for the course PCB 4034C taught by Professor Osenberg during the Spring '11 term at University of Florida.

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Lecture - Outline Disease Dynamics 1 Examples(inc measles 1 SIR models 1 Epidemics 1 Vaccinations 1 Persistence(endemics Examples Weekly deaths in

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