lecture11- Production Models and Probabilistic Computations

lecture11- Production Models and Probabilistic Computations...

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Unformatted text preview: EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control Chapter 8 Production Cost Models © 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 2 Introduction c Production cost models r are computational models designed to calculate information for long-range system planning: c generation system production costs c energy import requirements c availability of energy for sale to other systems c fuel consumption r employees models of expected load patterns and simulated operation of the system’s generation c uncertainty of load forecasts c reliability of generating units c expected need for emergency energy and capacity supplies r uses statistical computational methods for solving problems © 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 3 Introduction c Stochastic production cost models r used for long range studies r the risk of sudden, random, generating unit failures and random deviations for the mean forecasted load are treated as probability distributions r load modeling considers the behaviors of the “expected load” patterns that cover periods of weeks, months, and/or years c the load duration cover expresses the time period that the loading is expected to equal or exceed a given power value r generating unit modeling includes fuel costs usually expressed over a monthly basis c generating unit scheduled maintenance outages may involve time periods from days to years © 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 4 Introduction c Types of production cost studies Load Model Interval under Consideration Economic Dispatch Procedure total energy or load duration load duration or load cycles seasons or years months or weeks block loading (w/o regard to incr. costs) incremental loading load duration or load cycles load cycles months, weeks, or days weeks or days incremental loading with forced outages incremental loading with losses Long-Range Planning Operation Planning Weekly Schedules c c c c c c c c © 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 5 Load-duration Curves c Representation of future loads in which the impact of capacity limitations will be studied c Building the load-duration curve r consider the expected load pattern r build a histogram of load for a given time period and find the load density function, p ( x ) r integrate the load density function to obtain the load...
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This note was uploaded on 07/15/2011 for the course EEL 6266 taught by Professor Thomasbaldwin during the Fall '04 term at FSU.

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lecture11- Production Models and Probabilistic Computations...

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