lecture12- Production Models and Probabilistic Computations

lecture12- Production Models and Probabilistic Computations...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–6. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control Chapter 8 Production Cost Models
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
© 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 2 Probabilistic Programming c Production cost analysis r operating experience indicates that the force outage rate of thermal-generating units tends to increase with unit size c the frequent long-duration outages of the more efficient base-load units require running the less efficient, more expensive plants at higher than expected output and the importation of emergency energy r two measures of system unreliability due to random forced generator failures: c time period when the load is greater than available generation capacity c the expected levels of power and energy that must be imported to satisfy the load demand s sensitivity indicators of the need to add generator or tie-line capacity
Background image of page 2
© 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 3 Probabilistic Programming c Probabilistic production cost computations r mathematical methods that make use of probabilistic models c load models c energy and capacity models for generators s generator models represent the unavailability of basic energy resources, random forced outages, and the effects of energy sale/purchase contracts s tie-line models represent the expected cost of emergency energy, also called the cost of unsupplied energy r techniques for the convolution of the load distributions with the capacity-probability density functions c numerical convolution of discrete functions c analytical convolution of continuous functions
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
© 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 4 Probabilistic Programming c Probabilistic production cost computations r the unserved load distribution method c the individual unit probability capacity density functions are convolved one by one with the load distribution function s each convolution result is an unserved load distribution, which will be used for the next convolution s the overall result is a series of unserved load distributions s the sequence of convolutions is determined by a fixed economic loading criterion that sets the order of the generator units c the area under the load distributions represent needed energy s a unit’s energy production is found from the difference in the energy from the unserved load distribution prior to convolution and the energy from the new unserved load distribution after the convolution
Background image of page 4
© 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 5 Probabilistic Programming c Probabilistic production cost computations r the expected cost method c the individual unit probability capacity density functions are convolved with one another
Background image of page 5

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Image of page 6
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

This note was uploaded on 07/15/2011 for the course EEL 6266 taught by Professor Thomasbaldwin during the Fall '04 term at FSU.

Page1 / 18

lecture12- Production Models and Probabilistic Computations...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 6. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online