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lecture12- Production Models and Probabilistic Computations

lecture12- Production Models and Probabilistic Computations...

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EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control Chapter 8 Production Cost Models
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© 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 2 Probabilistic Programming circle6 Production cost analysis rhombus4 operating experience indicates that the force outage rate of thermal-generating units tends to increase with unit size circle6 the frequent long-duration outages of the more efficient base-load units require running the less efficient, more expensive plants at higher than expected output and the importation of emergency energy rhombus4 two measures of system unreliability due to random forced generator failures: circle6 time period when the load is greater than available generation capacity circle6 the expected levels of power and energy that must be imported to satisfy the load demand square4 sensitivity indicators of the need to add generator or tie-line capacity
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© 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 3 Probabilistic Programming circle6 Probabilistic production cost computations rhombus4 mathematical methods that make use of probabilistic models circle6 load models circle6 energy and capacity models for generators square4 generator models represent the unavailability of basic energy resources, random forced outages, and the effects of energy sale/purchase contracts square4 tie-line models represent the expected cost of emergency energy, also called the cost of unsupplied energy rhombus4 techniques for the convolution of the load distributions with the capacity-probability density functions circle6 numerical convolution of discrete functions circle6 analytical convolution of continuous functions
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© 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 4 Probabilistic Programming circle6 Probabilistic production cost computations rhombus4 the unserved load distribution method circle6 the individual unit probability capacity density functions are convolved one by one with the load distribution function square4 each convolution result is an unserved load distribution, which will be used for the next convolution square4 the overall result is a series of unserved load distributions square4 the sequence of convolutions is determined by a fixed economic loading criterion that sets the order of the generator units circle6 the area under the load distributions represent needed energy square4 a unit’s energy production is found from the difference in the energy from the unserved load distribution prior to convolution and the energy from the new unserved load distribution after the convolution
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© 2002, 2004 Florida State University EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control 5 Probabilistic Programming circle6 Probabilistic production cost computations rhombus4
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  • Fall '04
  • THOMASBALDWIN
  • Probability distribution, Probability theory, probability density function, Florida State University, Power System Operation and Control

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