Chapter_04 - FOREX Market Participants The FOREX market is...

Info iconThis preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: FOREX Market Participants The FOREX market is a two­tiered market: • Interbank Market (Wholesale) About 700 banks worldwide stand ready to make a market in Foreign exchange. Nonbank dealers account for about 20% of the market. There are FX brokers who match buy and sell orders but do not carry inventory and FX specialists. • Client Market (Retail) Market participants include international banks, their customers, nonbank dealers, FOREX brokers, and central banks. London is Most Active FX Market Daily Trading Volumes by Hour Correspondent Banking Correspondent Relationships Relationships Large commercial banks maintain demand deposit accounts with one another which facilitates the efficient functioning of the forex market. International commercial banks communicate with one another with: • SWIFT: The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. • CHIPS: Clearing House Interbank Payments System • ECHO Exchange Clearing House Limited, the first global clearinghouse for settling interbank FOREX transactions. Correspondent Banking FX Turnover Spot Rate Quotations Direct quotation • the U.S. dollar equivalent • e.g. “a Japanese Yen is worth about a penny” Indirect Quotation • the price of a U.S. dollar in the foreign currency • e.g. “you get 100 yen to the dollar” See the insert card from your textbook. Spot Rate Quotations Country USD equiv Friday USD equiv Thursday Currency per USD Currency per Friday USD Thursday Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377 Australia (Dollar) 0.5906 0.5934 1.6932 1.6852 Brazil (Real) 0.2939 0.2879 3.4025 3.4734 Britain (Pound) 1.5627 1.566 0.6399 0.6386 1 Month Forward 1.5596 1.5629 0.6412 0.6398 3 Months Forward 1.5535 1.5568 0.6437 0.6423 6 Months Forward 1.5445 1.5477 0.6475 0.6461 0.6692 0.6751 1.4943 1.4813 1 Month Forward 0.6681 0.6741 1.4968 1.4835 3 Months Forward 0.6658 0.6717 1.502 6 Months Forward 0.662 0.6678 1.5106 Canada (Dollar) 1.4888 1.4975 The direct quote for British pound is: £1 = $1.5627 Spot Rate Quotations Country USD equiv Friday USD equiv Thursday Currency per USD Friday Currency per USD Thursday Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377 Australia (Dollar) 0.5906 0.5934 1.6932 1.6852 Brazil (Real) 0.2939 0.2879 3.4025 3.4734 Britain (Pound) 1.5627 1.566 0.6399 0.6386 1 Month Forward 1.5596 1.5629 0.6412 0.6398 3 Months Forward 1.5535 1.5568 0.6437 0.6423 6 Months Forward 1.5445 1.5477 0.6475 0.6461 Canada (Dollar) 0.6692 0.6751 1.4943 1.4813 1 Month Forward 0.6681 0.6741 1.4968 1.4835 3 Months Forward 0.6658 0.6717 1.502 1.4888 6 Months Forward 0.662 0.6678 1.5106 1.4975 The indirect quote for British pound is: £.6399 = $1 Spot Rate Quotations Country USD equiv Friday USD equiv Thursday Currency per USD Friday Currency per USD Thursday Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377 Australia (Dollar) 0.5906 0.5934 1.6932 1.6852 Brazil (Real) 0.2939 0.2879 3.4025 3.4734 Britain (Pound) 1.5627 1.566 0.6399 0.6386 1 Month Forward 1.5596 1.5629 0.6412 0.6398 3 Months Forward 1.5535 1.5568 0.6437 0.6423 6 Months Forward 1.5445 1.5477 0.6475 0.6461 Canada (Dollar) 0.6692 0.6751 1.4943 1.4813 1 Month Forward 0.6681 0.6741 1.4968 1.4835 3 Months Forward 0.6658 0.6717 1.502 1.4888 6 Months Forward 0.662 0.6678 1.5106 1.4975 Note that the direct quote is the reciprocal of the indirect quote: 1 1.5627 = .6399 The Bid-Ask Spread The bid price is the price a dealer is willing to pay you for something. The ask price is the amount the dealer wants you to pay for the thing. The bid­ask spread is the difference between the bid and ask prices. Spot FX trading In the interbank market, the standard size trade is about U.S. $10 million. A bank trading room is a noisy, active place. The stakes are high. The “long term” is about 10 minutes. Cross Rates Suppose that S($/€) = .50 • i.e. $1 = 2 € and that S(¥/€) = 50 • i.e. €1 = ¥50 What must the $/¥ cross rate be? $$€ since = × , ¥€¥ $1 €1 $1 × = ⇒ S ($ / ¥) = .01 or $1 = ¥100 €2 ¥50 ¥100 Triangular Arbitrage Suppose we observe these banks posting these exchange rates. First calculate the implied cross rates to see if an arbitrage exists. $ Barclays Credit Lyonnais S(¥/$)=120 S(£/$)=1.50 ¥ Credit Agricole S(¥/£)=85 £ Triangular Arbitrage The implied S(¥/£) cross rate is S(¥/£) = 80 $ Credit Lyonnais Barclays S(¥/$)=120 Credit Agricole has posted a quote of S(¥/£)=85 so there is an arbitrage opportunity. ¥ Credit Agricole £ S(¥/£)=85 So, how can we make money? S(£/$)=1.50 £1.50 $1 £1 × = $1 ¥120 ¥80 Buy the £ @ ¥80; sell @ ¥85. Then trade yen for dollars. Triangular Arbitrage As easy as 1 – 2 – 3: $ 1. Sell our $ for £, Barclays 2. Sell our £ for ¥, S(¥/$)=120 Credit Lyonnais 3. Sell those ¥ for $. 3 1 2 ¥ Credit Agricole S(¥/£)=85 S(£/$)=1.50 £ Triangular Arbitrage Sell $100,000 for £ at S(£/$) = 1.50 receive £150,000 Sell our £ 150,000 for ¥ at S(¥/£) = 85 receive ¥12,750,000 Sell ¥ 12,750,000 for $ at S(¥/$) = 120 receive $106,250 profit per round trip = $ 106,250- $100,000 = $6,250 Spot Foreign Exchange Spot Microstructure Microstructure Market Microstructure refers to the mechanics of how a marketplace operates. Bid­Ask spreads in the spot FX market: • increase with FX exchange rate volatility and • decrease with dealer competition. Private information is an important determinant of spot exchange rates. The Forward Market A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset in the future at prices agreed upon today. If you have ever had to order an out­of­ stock textbook, then you have entered into a forward contract. Forward Rate Quotations The forward market for FOREX involves agreements to buy and sell foreign currencies in the future at prices agreed upon today. Bank quotes for 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month maturities are readily available for forward contracts. Longer­term swaps are available. Forward Rate Quotations Consider the example from above: for British pound, the spot rate is $1.5627 = £1.00 While the 180­day forward rate is $1.5445 = £1.00 What’s up with that? Spot Rate Quotations Country USD equiv Friday USD equiv Thursday Currency per USD Friday Currency per USD Thursday Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377 Australia (Dollar) 0.5906 0.5934 1.6932 1.6852 Brazil (Real) 0.2939 0.2879 3.4025 3.4734 Britain (Pound) 1.5627 1.566 0.6399 0.6386 1 Month Forward 1.5596 1.5629 0.6412 0.6398 3 Months Forward 1.5535 1.5568 0.6437 0.6423 6 Months Forward 1.5445 1.5477 0.6475 0.6461 Canada (Dollar) 0.6692 0.6751 1.4943 1.4813 1 Month Forward 0.6681 0.6741 1.4968 1.4835 3 Months Forward 0.6658 0.6717 1.502 1.4888 6 Months Forward 0.662 0.6678 1.5106 1.4975 Clearly the market participants expect that the pound will be worth less in dollars in six months. Long and Short Forward Long Positions Positions If you have agreed to sell anything (spot or forward), you are “short”. If you have agreed to buy anything (forward or spot), you are “long”. If you have agreed to sell forex forward, you are short. If you have agreed to buy forex forward, you are long. Payoff Profiles profit If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot price later falls then you gain. S180($/¥) 0 F180($/¥) = .009524 If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot loss price later rises then you lose. Short position Payoff Profiles profit short position 0 F180(¥/$) = 105 -F180(¥/$) loss Whether the payoff profile slopes up or down S180(¥/ depends upon w $)hether you use the direct or indirect quote: F180(¥/$) = 105 or F180($/¥) = .009524. Payoff Profiles profit short position S180(¥/$) 0 F180(¥/$) = 105 -F180(¥/$) loss When the short entered into this forward contract, he agreed to sell ¥ in 180 days at F180(¥/$) = 105 Payoff Profiles profit short position 15¥ S180(¥/$) 0 F180(¥/$) = 105 -F180(¥/$) loss 120 If, in 180 days, S180(¥/$) = 120, the short will make a profit by buying ¥ at S180(¥/$) = 120 and delivering ¥ at F180(¥/$) = 105. Payoff Profiles profit F180(¥/$) Since this is a zero-sum game, the long position payoff is the opposite of the short. short position S180(¥/$) 0 F180(¥/$) = 105 -F180(¥/$) loss Long position Payoff Profiles profit -F180(¥/$) 0 The long in this forward contract agreed to BUY ¥ in 180 days at F180(¥/$) = 105 If, in 180 days, S180(¥/$) = 120, the long will lose by having to buy ¥ at S180(¥/$) = 120 and delivering ¥ at F180(¥/$) = 105. S180(¥/$) 120 F180(¥/$) = 105 –15¥ loss Long position Forward Cross Exchange Rates It’s just an “delayed” example of the spot cross rate discussed above. In generic terms FN ($ / k ) FN ( j / k ) = FN ($ / j ) and FN ($ / j ) FN (k / j ) = FN ($ / k ) SWAPS A swap is an agreement to provide a counterparty with something he wants in exchange for something that you want. Swap transactions account for approximately 56 percent of interbank FX trading, whereas outright trades are 11 percent. Forward Premium It’s just the interest rate differential implied by forward premium or discount. For example, suppose the € is appreciating from S($/€) = .5235 to F180($/€) = .5307 The forward premium is given by: f180,€ v $ F180 ($ / €) − S ($ / €) 360 .5307 − .5235 = × = = .01375 S ($ / €) 180 .5235 Forward Point Quotes Forward Point Quotes Mini Case ...
View Full Document

Ask a homework question - tutors are online