{[ promptMessage ]}

Bookmark it

{[ promptMessage ]}

Jolynn - Week 3 Individual Paper

# Jolynn - Week 3 Individual Paper - Decision of Uncertainty...

This preview shows pages 1–4. Sign up to view the full content.

Decision of Uncertainty 1 Decision of Uncertainty Paper Decision of Uncertainty Jolynn Weeks University of Phoenix Patricia Towne QNT 561 April 13, 2011

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
Decision of Uncertainty 2 Decision of Uncertainty “Since ovarian cancer is the fifth leading cause of all cancer deaths in women, the goal of effective ovarian cancer screening would be to detect early stage disease with a subsequent improvement in overall survival” (Runowicz, 1999). Ovarian cancer is a disease that touches many lives. In my eyes, the most important part of medicine is diagnostic testing which can catch and prevent such diseases. One of the most important diagnostic tests for ovarian cancer known is the CA-125 screening. The CA-125, known as a tumor-marker, is a protein found in cells, which is in greater concentration when a tumor is present (Stoppler). When analyzing the effectiveness of CA-125 diagnostic test, we would consider the sensitivity and specificity. In this case, the sensitivity of the test is the proportion of results that correctly identify people with ovarian cancer. In other words, people testing positive represent, in symbolic terms, P. The specificity is the percentage of tests that correctly classify people who do not have ovarian cancer. This paper will analyze the probability of people testing positive for ovarian cancer. From a detection and treatment perspective this is extremely important, as is for the medical business as well. Assume a person goes to the doctor for a CA-125 ovarian cancer screening, and they test positive. The question would be what is the probability that the person being tested has ovarian cancer? By using Bayes’ Theorem we can determine the result. In order to complete this calculation, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values (ppv) need to be determined. Sensitivity refers to the probability that a specific test will actually be positive in a person who has the disease. Specificity, on the other hand, refers to the probability that the specific test being administered will be negative is a person without the disease. Lastly, the positive
Decision of Uncertainty 3 predictive value is the probability that the person that comes back with a positive result on the test actually has the disease.

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

### What students are saying

• As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

• I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

• The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern