Lecture8_updated - probability that this person is Male...

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Lecture 8 18 th  May 2011
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Recall: Independent Events Conditional Probability
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Example: Bill and George go target shooting together.  Both shoot at a target at the same time.  Suppose Bill hits the target with probability  0.7, whereas George, independently, hits  the target with probability 0.4. a) Given that exactly one shot hit the target,  what is the probability that it was George’s  shot?
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b) Given that the target is hit, what is the  probability that George hit it?
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Example: Suppose 5% of Males and 0.25% of  Females are colour blind. A colour-blind  person is randomly selected. What is the 
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Unformatted text preview: probability that this person is Male? Assume that there is an equal number of males and females. • Example The completion of a construction job may be delayed because of a strike. The probabilities are 0.6 that there will be a strike, 0.85 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is no strike, and 0.35 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is a strike. What is the probability that the construction job will be completed on time?...
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