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lecture15_6slides

lecture15_6slides - Statistics 528 Lecture 15 Assigning...

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Statistics 528 - Lecture 15 1 Statistics 528 - Lecture 15 Prof. Kate Calder 1 Assigning Probabilities Probabilities in a Finite Sample Space Assign a probability to each individual outcome. These probabilities must be numbers between 0 and 1 and must sum to 1. The probability of any event is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes making up the event. Statistics 528 - Lecture 15 Prof. Kate Calder 2 How do we determine probabilities? 1. Frequency of occurrence. If we repeat a chance experiment many times then, P(A) = (number of time A occurred)/(number of times we repeated the experiment) 2. Assume all outcomes are equally likely If a random phenomena has k possible outcomes, all equally likely, then each individual outcome has probability 1/k. The probability of an event A is P(A) = (count of outcomes in A)/(count of outcomes in S) = (count of outcomes in A)/k Statistics 528 - Lecture 15 Prof. Kate Calder 3 3. Subjective estimates 4. Mathematical model Statistics 528 - Lecture 15 Prof. Kate Calder 4 Example:
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