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Bell - Six Future Challenges 50 years after The Celebration...

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NUPC ‘1998 Six Future Challenges: 50 years after The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at University of Manchester New Paradigms for Using Computers New Personal Computer Uses July 16, 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation
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NUPC ‘1998 Some challenges Fifty years ago the first stored program computer ran at Manchester. Now, we should posit challenges for the next five decades that will exploit computing. Several challenges are inter- related because they depend on being able to analyze and synthesize human voice and images. Already, humans have failed the Turing test when communicating via printed text. When will computers be able to win when communicating via telephone or videophone? Given this capability and the extraordinary advances in processing and storage, we should be able to build systems that can record, store, and retrieve everything we have read (written), heard (said), and seen or been part of.
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NUPC ‘1998 From Questionable...Great Research & Book Reports to Poor...Profitable Product: “and then a miracle happens” For New Uses of PCs Conference… also New Paradigms for Using Computers July 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp. Bay Area Research Center
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NUPC ‘1998 Research to Product Models The Classical, Feed-Forward Process Gov’t Model I. Fund product development & then buy the products Gov’t Model II. Issue challenge. Buy product. “We invented it, now productize it, stupid” PARC I “We invented something, let’s at least try to get our money back.” PARC II Fund a company for research & development Research as a recruiting tool Hire good people, encourage interaction Hire good people, large projects, do startups Do it in/with product development Fund university research and pray…
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NUPC ‘1998 Just say “no” to Uncle Sam if a useful product is the goal Projects that large companies e.g. Xerox find marginal or VCs won’t fund e.g. Kestrel Model based on observing ARPA/DARPA SCI funding c1980s Still in use, including ATP, SBIR 30 projects c80s, NO successful products… did succeed in demolishing Cray Research… and vector processing. MPP yet to happen. Fund technology & product development, get military customers to buy the output. Funding researchers is a different motivator than funding developers… little in common
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NUPC ‘1998 Heuristics for Government Funding Fund University Research Issue “buy” challenges to foster competition
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NUPC ‘1998 The two great inventions The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices… the challenge is to exploit them Computers are built from other computers in a iterative, layered, and recursive fashion The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957).
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