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plugin-Chapter 17 Students - Thinking About Chance CHAPTER...

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CHAPTER 17 Thinking About Chance
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THOUGHT QUESTION 1 Here are two very different probability questions: If you roll a 6-sided die and do it fairly, what is the probability that it will land with “3” showing? What is the probability that in your lifetime you will travel to a foreign country other than one you have already visited? For which question was it easier to provide a precise answer? Why? For which one could we all agree?
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TWO CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY Personal-Probability Interpretation The degree to which a given individual believes the event in question will happen Personal belief Relative-Frequency Interpretation The proportion of time the event in question occurs over the long run “Long - run relative frequency”
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THE IDEA OF PROBABILITY When we toss a fair coin, we can’t predict what the next flip will be. However, because of probability, we can predict that, after a large number of flips, roughly 1/2 of our flips will be “heads” and roughly 1/2 of our flips will be “tails.” This is how chance behavior works.
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